There has been plenty of news recently about the collapse in property prices on the east coast, but the housing boom in many cities is still there, and there is still optimism that house prices will rise in the future.
Melbourne and Sydney prices have fallen the most, with some regions experiencing double-digit home price declines, compared with a 10% rise in Horbart property prices in the past 12 months, in the three years to July this year. The value of homes soared by more than 32%.
What are these places experiencing against the growth of the city?
Trevlyn McCallum owns a property south of Hobart and invests in a number of properties around the city.
"House prices are growing very hard right now, and I firmly believe that valuable properties will continue to grow that way for the next five years," he said.
Nor does Hobart`s real estate agent Matthew Chugg, who thinks Hobart`s real estate market is still hot.
"there is a decline in the number of properties for sale, and the demand for purchases continues to rise, a supply-demand relationship that means a booming real estate market." Chugg also said house prices had been pushed up because Sydney and Melbourne residents had moved locally in pursuit of a better quality of life and environment, and that another major driver had been the choice of former emigrants to return home.
"Tasmania now has a very different economic environment than it used to be, and the rapid growth of the economy has made it more suitable for work and life, so they moved back."
Roger Montgomery, a fund manager who has been studying the real estate market, agrees: "Hobart is reviving, so a lot of people move back, open a gin factory or coffee shop, believe it or not, Tasmania is a great place to live today."
Hobart is not the only rising capital city. Home prices in Canberra have risen nearly 5 percent in the past 12 months and 35 percent since 2008, according to CoreLogic.
Over the past 10 years, Adelaide homeowners have also enjoyed more than 20% home price increases.
The situation in major cities throughout the country:
The impact of rising house prices on tenants
However, Hobart`s recent surge in house prices has undoubtedly cost tenants.
Economist Saul Eslake points out that Hobart has become one of Australia`s most expensive cities for rent. "while Hobart`s house prices are still well below most of the mainland`s capital cities, the rent for Hobart`s stand-alone homes is now higher than that of almost any capital city except Sydney and Darwin."
Tenants in Hobart spent 29 percent of their wages on rent, followed by Sydney tenants with 27 percent, followed by Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Canberra and Perth, according to the report.
Meanwhile, double-digit house price rises over the years are driving young Sydney out of the market. Data show that 42% of the greater Sydney area is tenants.
This will ultimately have an impact on supply in the housing market, Montgomery said. "but it will still take a few years to see the positive impact of higher rents and higher rentals on house prices," he said.
So can these regions withstand the current trend of widespread housing recession across the country?
Economist Saul Eslake wants to use the latest home price data to show that no one can deny that house prices across the country are experiencing a slump.
"there is no denying that national factors such as interest rate adjustments and tax policy tightening have had a significant impact on real estate prices across the country," he said. But the actual situation across regions, especially the ability to attract migrants from one state to another, and of course the performance of the local economy, also has a significant impact on the supply and demand of housing, "he said.
But now these factors that "pull Sydney and Melbourne home prices off the altar" do not mean that Hobart, Adelaide and Canberra will not be the victims of their coming down.
According to Montgomery, it was only a matter of time before Hobart was hit:
The truth is, house prices are falling not only in Australia`s main capital cities, but also in London`s, New York, Hong Kong, Toronto, Queens, Auckland, Vancouver, and other big cities you can think of as well.
He added: "this is the result of rising interest rates and weakening interest from foreign investors in real estate."
The figures show that house prices in Perth and Darwin have been falling for years and have fallen 3% in the past 12 months.
"Perth and Darwin bear the brunt. It is only a matter of time before prices in Canberra and Hobart fall in Sydney and Melbourne."
Economist Saul Eslake agrees: "over the past two to three decades, we have spent a long time portraying Australia as a two-speed economy. We have a multi-speed real estate market and no one should be surprised. "
But those involved still believe that demand in Australia`s housing market will remain strong over the next few years.
Real estate agent Matthew Chugg is a little tired of all these terrible predictions. "just over the weekend, the front page of a local newspaper published a story saying that the market was falling and everyone was doomed." Things are bad. I don`t think that`s exactly the case, not only in Hobart or Tata, but also in the rest of the world that we`re watching closely. "
, Trevlyn McCallum, of course, is a part of the bullish crowd, adamant that Hobart`s real estate is on the way up.
