Corelogic`s market pulsation program, (Pulse), this week looked at changes in the value of independent homes and apartments across Australia over the past decade. (* take the Australian Bureau of Statistics`s fourth-tier statistical division, the SA4 Division, as the unit of statistics. That is, each state is divided into several regions, a total of 88 SA4 subdivisions throughout the country)
In the decade to June 2018, residential value nationwide grew 43.9 percent, including 52.6 percent in capital cities and 16.6 percent in other markets.
The value of independent homes across the country has risen 46.9 percent over the past decade, with 56.2 percent in the capital city up from 20.0 percent in the rest of the country.
Of the 88 SA4 regions in the country, residential values have increased in 73 areas over the past decade, while those in the remaining 15 regions have declined. The SA4 area in New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Capital Territory has not seen a decline in residential value in the past decade. At the same time, the value of homes in most of Western Australia`s SA4 area has declined over the past decade.
Changes in the value of stand-alone houses in SA4 areas throughout the country over the 10-year period up to June 2018
The biggest rise in the value of independent homes in Australia over the past decade was in the southwestern part of Sydney, where the value of independent homes rose 112.9 percent over the same period. Independent housing prices in five other SA4 areas have doubled in the past decade: Sydney Parramatta (107.4%), Sydney-NSW (106.6%), Sydney-West (103.3%), and Sydney-West (103.3%), the other five are: Sydney (107.4%), Sydney-South West (106.6%), and Sydney (103.3%). Melbourne-Southeast (102.7%) and Melbourne-West (102.3%).
The largest decline in the value of stand-alone homes over the past decade was in the West Australian Inland (North) (- 38.3%), followed by: Western Australia Inland (South) (- 34.0%) and Kunzhou Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday (- 27.3%), followed by Western Australia Inland (South) (- 34.0%) and Kunzhou Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday (- 27.3%). Central Kunzhou (- 26.8%) and Queensland Townsville (- 23.6%). In the past decade, only three districts in the capital region of SA4, all of which belong to Perth, Western Australia, have recorded falling prices for independent homes.
The value of separate homes in New South Wales and Victoria grew far more than anywhere else, in fact, even in the worst-performing new states, (Riverina) and Victoria (northwest). The value of independent homes in the past decade has also outpaced Western Australia`s best performer, Perth-Northwest.
With the exception of New and Victoria, the remaining areas with the strongest growth in the value of stand-alone homes in the past decade were Brisbane-South (30.2%), Adelaide-West (20.3%), Perth-Northwest (2.2%), and Brisbane-South (30.2%), Adelaide-West (20.3%), Southeast Tara (43.9%), Northern Territory Inland (35.2%) and Capital Territory (30.3%).
The Illawarra region of New South Wales has seen the largest increase in the value of stand-alone homes in the rest of Australia except the capital over the past decade, with 86.8%.Illawarra ranking 15th in terms of independent home value growth over the past decade. The non-capital market also saw relatively big gains in the value of independent homes in Geelong (79.6%), Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven (77.9%) in New York, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie (68.6% in New York and Bendigo (63.3%) in Victoria.
Over the past decade, the value of apartments nationwide has risen 34.2 percent, below the 46.9 percent increase in the value of independent homes. The overall apartment value rose 42.0 percent in capital cities, while 0.4 percent in non-capital areas was also lower than the 56.2 percent and 20.0 percent increases in stand-alone homes.
The value of apartments in 53 of the country`s 88 SA4 regions has increased over the past decade, while the value of apartments in the remaining 35 regions has declined.
Changes in the value of apartments in SA4 areas throughout the country during the ten-year period ending June 2018
The biggest increase in the value of apartments in Australia over the past decade was in the southwestern part of Sydney, where apartment values rose 112.9 percent over the same period. The value of apartments in the other five SA4 areas has doubled over the past decade: Sydney Parramatta (107.4%), Sydney-NSW (106.6%), Sydney-West (103.3%), Melbourne-Southeast (102.7%) and Melbourne-West (102.3%).
The largest declines in apartment value over the past decade were recorded in the West Australian Inland (North) (- 73.3%), Western Australia Inland (South) (- 65.7%) and Darling Downs-Maranoa (- 52.9%) in Kunzhou.
Central Kunzhou (- 45.8%) and Queensland Townsville (- 45.6%). The value of apartments fell in 15 areas in the capital region and the remaining 20 in the non-capital region. The largest declines in apartments were recorded in Darwin (- 26.0%), Ipswich (- 23.5%) and Logan-Beaudesert (- 22.1%), Moreton) in Kunzhou.
Southern Bay- (- 20.5%) and Perth-Inner City (- 19.5%).
With the exception of New South Wales, the largest increases in apartment value over the past decade have been in Melbourne-Outer East (63.1%), Kunzhou Inland (28.7%) and South East Australia (41.0). The wheat belt of Western Australia (54.9%), the southeast area of Tazhou (63.3%), the inland area of the Northern Territory (28.7%) and the Capital Territory (11.6%).
Outside the capital cities, the largest increases in apartment value over the past decade have been in the southeast of Tazhou (63.3%), in the new state of Illawarra (60.2%), in the far east of the new state and in Orana (55.7%). Western Australia wheat belt (54.9%) and Victoria Bendigo (46.2%).
Over the past decade, growth in the value of independent homes and apartments has shown strong growth in Sydney and Melbourne, while in other regions there has been a weak "one-sided" trend. The performance of the past decade is not predictable. Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are already falling, and non-capital markets are outperforming capital cities. Given the downturn and affordability in Sydney and Melbourne, returns over the past decade seem unlikely to be replicated in the next decade.
