The Australian property market is about to cry again!
As the Australian dollar continues to depreciate, there has been speculation that the Bank of Australia will not hold up when it will start to cut interest rates. As a result, the news of the rate cut did not come, but waited for a hint from the Central Bank of Australia: we are more likely to raise interest rates than we would cut rates.
At the same time, the RMB "break 7" pressure continues to increase, the offshore yuan has been approaching 6.98, a 10-year low.
The Sydney liquidation rate was the lowest in 10 years, and the Australian central bank hinted to raise interest rates again
Sydney`s housing market has long been seen as a bellwether for the Australian housing market, but the recent performance has added to concerns about the Australian housing market. Sydney`s CBD apartment was once Sydney`s hottest apartment, always in short supply, and house prices and rents have risen sharply in recent years.
But nearly 1 / 3 of Sydney`s apartments are selling at a loss, according to the latest UBS statistics.
Even unfinished apartments are selling for a record two hundred and twenty eight thousand nine hundred and ninety nine units below the purchase price.
UBS worries that such a "sell-off" could cause panic in the market, causing more owners to start selling. And once the market confidence collapses, the buyer may not even "copy the bottom" confidence. To make matters worse, after the stable performance of the Australian housing market, a large number of investors have boldly borrowed money from banks to invest in housing.
Now a fall in housing prices, many people not only in the short term to return home, but also need to bear the pressure to repay loans.
So far, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have fallen 15% from their peak in 2017! Sydney`s property market has fallen below 40%, a 10-year low.
Comments that Australia`s house prices have fallen faster and faster than previously forecast. Speculation has been raised about when the Bank of Australia will announce a steady housing market cut in interest rates.
"the Australian central bank will not stand by."
"the housing market is the backbone of Australia`s economy, and the central bank must not let it go down."
Uh. Hope is still good, but the reality is cruel … "in the light of the current situation, our members still agree that we are more likely to raise interest rates than lower cash rates," the Bank of Australia said at a meeting in October.
The meeting has been interpreted as a "signal of interest rate increases" from the central bank. In any case, the only certainty is that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term.
Want the central bank to save the property market, die this heart.
2. What happens to the Australian dollar against the renminbi once the Australian central bank does raise interest rates?
If the Australian central bank does raise interest rates, then what will we see? Once interest rates are raised, the interest rate gap between Australia and the United States will narrow, and we may see a rise in the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
And the Australian dollar appreciation and the renminbi in the current devaluation pressure, there may be a sustained rise in Australia against the renminbi! In this way, investment in Australia, as small as Australian purchasing agents, will face the problem of increasing costs. And with Australian dollar home investment, buy things, will feel cheaper.
So once the Australian central bank raises interest rates, studies abroad, purchasing agents, buying houses in Australia will all cry; and Chinese in Australia can take advantage of this opportunity to transfer money to their families or go back to China to buy things!
3, the pressure to "break 7" increased, the RMB median price fell below a 10-year low
Today, the offshore renminbi rose to 6.9799, close to 6.98,
The people`s Bank of China (PBoC) rushed to announce that it would issue 20 billion offshore bills on Nov. 7 to recover liquidity. This is also the first time in the history of the central bank in the offshore market issued renminbi central ticket. It can be seen that the central bank is determined to "protect 7" …
Yang Ma just announced that the market reaction was strong, the offshore renminbi quickly rebounded against the dollar close to 100 points, at 6.96. Unfortunately, it gradually threw up all the growth, back about 6.97, again close to 6.98 in the afternoon, compared with the US dollar against the RMB shock, the Australian dollar against the RMB exchange rate is still relatively stable, currently trading at 4.93.
The main reason is that the Australian dollar has recently come under devaluation pressure similar to that of the renminbi. The dollar index has been strong since the Fed raised interest rates, putting pressure on a wide range of currencies, including the Australian dollar and the yuan.
The Australian dollar has become the worst performing currency in developed markets and has fallen to a 33-month low against the dollar!
In the end, Australia`s population is still growing steadily, and historically, the recovery in the Australian housing market is still within reach, and now may be a good time to bottom out. And although the yuan is devaluing, but the yuan against the Australian dollar is still stable, now use the yuan to buy housing in Australia, is also a way to maintain the value.
