(picture source: ABC)
Australians may be scared when they buy ham this Christmas because the price of pork has risen 60 percent, while in the United States, the price of ham has skyrocketed by 70 percent. The reason for the surge in pork prices is not drought, but the outbreak of African swine fever in China this year.
The outbreak of African swine fever has a great impact on China, and it is a rare opportunity for Australia. Simon Quilty, a 30-year-old man with meat and trade, has just returned from China. He said the pig died in 48 hours after the infection of the African swine fever, and half of China`s pigs (equivalent to a quarter of the world) were killed after the infection of the swine fever.
"since August last year, swine fever has spread in Henan Province. Since then, about 41 percent of boars and 39.5 percent of sows have died in China, a figure that could reach 50 percent and 60 percent by the end of this year," Quildi said. "China consumes 54 million tons of pork a year, but this year`s figure is likely to be reduced by 1500 to 20 million tons because of swine fever."
Because of the huge loss of pork production, there will be a serious shortage of meat supply around the world, and Quildi believes the shortage will continue for even three to five years. In his view, Asians` bad habit of giving pigs swill has led to the rapid spread of swine fever.
But Australia`s beef industry is likely to benefit as global meat prices soar. Quildi said Australia`s exports of frozen and refrigerated beef were 72 percent and 112 percent higher this year than in the same period last year. In response to domestic pork shortages, China is importing pork, beef, mutton and poultry from around the world. In his view, demand from China is fueling the Australian beef industry, and many of the beef originally shipped to American hamburgers has now been diverted to China.
However, Quildi believes that the current tension between China and Australia relationship may be buried hidden dangers. Although the industry is actively trying to improve the relationship of the two countries, there are two issues of concern: ten meat factories in Australia have not been registered in China in the past two years, and tariffs are likely to rise from 6 percent to 12 percent. However, China has resumed imports of Canadian meat products, and Quildi hopes Australia and China will also reach a political settlement.
The current African swine fever is still in Asia, and has even been reported to have appeared in East Timor,700 km north of Darwin. If the swine fever broke out in Australia, it could have brought about a $2 billion economic loss to Australia.
