Sutley (Nigel Satterley), a rich man in the Australian Financial Review, warned that resale prices for Melbourne`s land were "fast" down 10 percent as Uber speculators and foreign investors defaulted on thousands of sales contracts.
The "top of the cycle" is inevitable after a 50 percent surge in prices within two years, Mr. Satley said in a research note by his property group.
"We think that over the next 30 months, 5000 new plots (about 165 lots a month) will be back on the market, either because of a default or because speculators want to resell immediately," he said. Satley told the Australian Financial Review.
"some of them are land-building packages sold to foreigners, and buyers are unable to access Australian bank financing or speculators are unable to solve the money problem," he said.
"it seems that only a small number of real estate investment agents are able to secure bank financing for their buyers." He said。
He said Satley, which already accounts for about 10 percent of the Melbourne land market, deliberately avoided selling land to speculators and foreign investors and limited its default rate to less than 3 percent, but expected it to rise to about 5 percent.
Major real estate groups that sell Australian residential properties to overseas buyers include Ausin, whose former China business partners recently collapsed), Ironfish and Jalin Realty.
Spokesmen for Federal Bank, Western Pacific Bank, ANC Bank and National Bank of Australia confirmed that they did not provide mortgage financing for foreign buyers who bought land-building packages.
As the middle price of land soared to three hundred and fifty thousand yuan, Mr. Satley became increasingly concerned about secondary sales markets in Melbourne, mainly speculators from the Middle East, Sri Lanka, Southeast Asia and China (according to Satterley) in some cases. Collect credit cards to buy land contracts and sell them for profit on Gumtree, a classified advertising site.
Speculators are in trouble
In July, Satley said when he went to Melbourne this year, his Uber driver told him how he and his friends borrowed as much money as possible to invest in real estate.
For many speculators, the surge in pricing was followed by a decline in land sales-from a peak of 22000 lots a year to 14000. Unable to sell the contract, they are in a hurry to get financing now.
For speculators in a position to settle, Mr. Sartley said that many cannot repay their mortgages and have to resell quickly, causing prices to fall by as much as 10 percent-but not collapse.
"We forecast an adjustment in land prices in these areas, ranging from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. A 400-square-meter piece of land priced at $ three hundred and twenty thousand could turn into $ two hundred and eighty eight thousand, two hundred and ninety five thousand-square-meter land that could return to two hundred and sixty five thousand. " He said。
But he said there would be no depression in the Sydney or Melbourne land market, as strong population growth, strong immigration, high employment, relatively cheap land prices and low interest rates would support new housing demand.
