At 20:30 on Thursday (July 11), the US Department of Labor released data showing that the US CPI monthly rate in June was 0.1%, higher than the expected value of 0%, unchanged from the previous value. US June core The CPI recorded a monthly rate of 0.3%, the largest increase in a year and a half, with an expected value of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.1%. After the release of CPI data, spot gold fell by $5 in the short-term, and the US dollar index rose more than 10 points in the short-term. The yield on the US two-year government bond rose by 2.6 basis points to 1.852%, and the yield curve flattened. As of press time, the price of gold traded at $140.86 per ounce, down nearly $15 from the opening price of the day.
XAUUSD
In addition, the number of unemployed people in the United States as of the 6th of July was 209,000, with a previous value of 221,000 and a expected value of 223,000. The initial US jobless claims fell to a three-month low, suggesting that a sustained strong labor market may boost the slowing economy. Earlier, the two senior officials of the Federal Reserve said they had concerns about low inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his testimony that continued low inflation is worrying, and lower inflation may lead to a decline in short-term interest rates. The Fed does not want to embark on a long-term low inflation path like Japan, and will be strongly committed to achieving a 2% inflation target.
Early this morning, St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said the Fed must focus on repositioning inflation and inflation expectations of 2 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may choose to pre-empt, and interest rate cuts are safeguards for a sharp fall in economic and low inflation. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that I was surprised by market expectations that unanimously asked the Fed to cut interest rates at a time when the U.S. economic was doing well. We have learned that neutral interest rates are lower than we thought, and so is neutral unemployment. Monetary policy is not as loose as we think. Powell's comments have dampened expectations of a Fed rate cut, hampering bulls in gold prices.
Technically, gold rose last night and then fell, rising from $1395.08 to $1425.82 an ounce and then falling to a daily low of $1400.73. The current price moves towards the range of 50.0% to 38.2% for Fibonacci, which is drawn from the decline from February to June 2013. There is a trend of slow fall, and the gold price is close to the 20-day average. Brin belt has opened yesterday and has a downward trend, indicating that gold prices are about to end a month-long unilateral rally. If gold continues to fall, gold will first reach a recent low of $1393.37 an ounce, with the bottom supporting position at 38.2 per cent and $1372.21 an ounce.
USOIL
On July 11, Fed Chairman Powell released pigeons' comments, reviving expectations of falling interest rate cuts. And the oil price in the EIA data profit, also appeared the strong upward breakthrough form. Investors need to note that after the surge, do not blindly chase after the rise.
Crude oil stocks fell for four weeks in a row, sending oil prices soaring to a seven-week high, according to EIA data. At present, the Iranian problem is still the key to the trend of oil prices, as long as uncertainty exists, oil prices will still have a supporting role. However, the problem of demand can not be ignored. With the slowdown of global economic and the suppression of inflation, the strength of continued rebound in oil prices will not be too high, and it is more likely to maintain the shock range in the short term.
A tropical system that is developing in the Gulf of Mexico may be the first threat to the United States during the hurricane season this year. ExxonMobil and Anadarko Petroleum announced on the 10th with several other oil producers that they would withdraw their staff from the deepwater platform in the Gulf of Mexico, as this could be a major storm. The evacuation of rig staff will affect the production of US crude oil, so this is a bullish factor for oil prices. According to foreign media reports, informed US officials said that five armed ships of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tried to detain a British tanker in the Persian Gulf on the 10th, but failed. The analysis believes that attempts to detain the tanker incident will exacerbate the confrontation between Iran and the United States and its allies.
On the technical side, the Fibonacci retracement drawn from the declining market from October 2018 to the end of 2018 can be observed that the oil price has surpassed the resistance of 50.0% in the previous trading day and continued to rise after 59.57 USD/barrel. The highest price is up to $60.58 per barrel. Although there is a slight correction, but the medium-term oil price is bullish, fine-tuning is reasonable. The oil price will first step back on the 50.0% support position and continue to rise. According to the commodity channel indicator CCI, the current value is 138.2883, indicating that the current oil price belongs to the extreme buying market. The next target position for oil prices looks upward at the 61.8% horizontal resistance position, at $63.66 per barrel.
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