This week, international gold closed down at $1395.82 an ounce, up from $1391.91 an ounce at the start of last Monday, but the amplitude of the week's gold price is like a roller coaster. A strong rebound in U.S. employment growth in June weakened the possibility that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month. But non-farmers will not change the world's leading central banks increasingly dovish, and global policymakers are under pressure to avoid a economic recession.
XAUUSD
The United States and China agreed to resume trade negotiations. The US employment growth rebounded strongly in June, weakening the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this month. The US dollar index soared to a two-week high of 97.446. Last Friday (July 5) non-agricultural data was published at 22:30 pm Sydney time, with a published value of 224,000, which is much better than the expected 7.5 (pre-amendment). The price of gold quickly fell to $140.42 per ounce, and then continued to fall to $1,386.59 per ounce, down nearly $51 from last week's high of $1,437.54 per ounce. After the release of the data, the US dollar index soared, causing a number of non-US currencies to fall. However, regardless of the performance of non-agricultural employment data, it will not change the trend of the major central banks in the world. The current price of gold is still near the important integer mark of $1400.00. The price of gold is also supported by the tension between Iran and the West.
The United States and China agreed to restart trade negotiations on June 29, and the United States made concessions, including no longer adding new tariffs on Chinese exports and relaxing restrictions on Huawei. The news limited the safe-haven buying of the gold market, which opened lower at the beginning of the week and directly fell below $1400.00. In a positive economic and trade environment, the US dollar is strengthening, which has a negative impact on gold. And the resumption of trade negotiations has prompted investors to look back at growth, the stock market is well supported, and demand for safe-haven products has fallen. The price of gold has been pulled back from around $1430.00, which could mean testing support near $1,380. All the pressures in the gold market come from US employment data. The increase in employment far exceeded all expectations. This may reduce the urgency of the Fed's interest rate cut in July. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a 50 basis point cut is weakened, while the majority expects to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Technically, gold prices fell as high as $1435.91 an ounce last week, hitting the 50.0 per cent horizontal resistance position drawn from the downward trend from February 7, 2013 to June 28, 2013, and the upward resistance released by this point was very strong, and gold prices fell when they touched $1341.63 an ounce, putting down the three-day average that had just risen. Move closer to the 20-day average. Commodity channel index CCI has approached the-100.0000 level, and there is a more obvious downward trend, indicating that gold prices will drop prices. If gold continues to fall to $1383.00 an ounce, making the 20-day average cross three-day averages, the short door to gold will be opened and prices will be supported at $1346.57 an ounce, the last year's high hit on February 20.
GBPUSD
This week, Sino-US trade has significantly boosted the dollar's long-term morale, and the US non-agricultural data far exceeded expectations. The Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point cut in July was suppressed. The US dollar index hit a two-and-a-half-week high on the weekend. To 97.542. The US dollar index soared, causing a large number of non-US currencies to fall.
The pound hit a half-year low of 1.2480 against the dollar before recovering 45 points before closing down to 1.2525. In addition to the crackdown on the strong dollar, the Bank of England may be prepared to turn freak and follow the example of other central banks to cut interest rates in order to support the deteriorating outlook for economic. Johnson, the popular candidate for British prime minister, also said he needed to be prepared for Brexit without an agreement at the end of October. Bank of England Governor Gary Carney said this week that the global trade standoff and the risk of unagreed Brexit hit the UK economic and that the UK economic may need more support to deal with the recession. Investors have been prompted to increase their bets on the Bank of England's easing policy. The Bank of England is the only major economic central bank in the world that is still on a hawkish line. The pound faces huge selling pressure as the Bank of England appears to be taking a more realistic view of Brexit. If Britain delays Brexit again, Carney may start cutting interest rates. Weak data suggest that UK economic is likely to shrink in the second quarter. The biggest concern about the currency is that the UK will not be able to reach an orderly Brexit deal with the European Union before the October 31 limit.
In terms of technology, the GBP has been running in an orderly decline channel opened on March 13.
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