The dollar rose slightly on July 8, near a three-week high, and strong U.S. employment data in June weakened expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates sharply at the end of July, as traders waited for Fed Chairman Powell to speak for clues to the rate cut. Gold prices fell as the market increasingly expected the Fed not to cut interest rates sharply later this month.
XAUUSD
Gold fell from day-to-day highs on Monday (July 8) in) New York trading, falling below the $1400.00 / oz mark, weighed down by a stronger dollar, while intraday gold prices competed fiercely over $1400.00 an ounce. Last week, U.S. non-farm payrolls data strongly supported the dollar to pressure gold prices, but concerns about slowing global economic growth and expectations that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the month still support gold prices. Spot gold traded at $1393.01 an ounce at the time of publication, falling nearly $14 from a day high of $1407.45 an ounce.
Non-agricultural performance was good last week. The US employment report showed that non-agricultural employment increased by 224,000 in June, exceeding the estimated increase of 160,000. Under good job performance, investors now expect Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates slowly this year. The market expects a 50 basis point cut to fall to 4.9%, and a 25 basis point cut is expected to rise to 95.1%. The market expects the Fed to announce a rate cut this month, which is still expected to be 100%. The US dollar responded positively to US non-farm payrolls data and put downward pressure on commodity prices. This is not a question of whether the Fed will cut interest rates. The question is how much and how fast they will cut interest rates. The world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust position decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day, and the current position is 795.80 tons. However, it is worth noting that although gold will fall back in the short term, in the global market, gold prices are still a bullish attitude in the long run.
Technically, gold prices have fallen for three consecutive days, with prices falling nearly $44 from their highs. Judging from yesterday's daily chart, gold prices are supported by bulls' forces, but the upper shadow line, which is four times longer than the entity, shows that gold prices are still falling despite being dragged by bulls, indicating that short power is coming. If the gold price continues to fall, making the 20-day average cross down the 3-day average, it will form a dead fork, opening the door for the short potential energy of the gold price. At the same time, the two trading days of June 25 and July 3 fell back to form a double-top technical form, indicating that gold prices are likely to face a downward trend later. The price of support below is $1385.04 per ounce.
USOIL
Iran's government announced on the 8th that Iran has broken through the limit on the abundance of 3.67% enriched uranium in the Iran nuclear agreement. Iran Atomic Energy Organization weaving speaker Behruz Qamalwandi issued a statement on the same day, confirming that Iran has broken through the limit of 3.67% abundance in the Iran nuclear agreement. The news was released at about 01: 30 a.m. on July 9, Sydney time, and the news rose to $58.41 a barrel. Us oil prices are trading at $57.42 a barrel, a slight drop from day-to-day highs.
The relationship, which continues to be tense, has escalated again, directly affecting gold and crude oil, which will be hit by production and will see a rebound in prices in the near future.
The United States announced a unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018, followed by a series of sanctions against Iran. In response, Iran announced on May 8 this year that it would suspend the implementation of some of the provisions of the Iraqi nuclear agreement. At the same time, Iran intends to negotiate with other signatories to the Iraqi nuclear agreement within 60 days. If the complaint is not satisfied, Iran will no longer limit the abundance of products in its enrichment activities. In the early hours of this morning, Khamalvandi announced that Iran would increase the abundance of enriched uranium, no longer subject to the comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear issue, which limits Iran to only 3.67 percent of enriched uranium. When Trump was asked about Iran at New Jersey airport when he was preparing to return to the White House on the same day, he said, "Iran better be careful."
It is unlikely that Iran will push the United States back to the negotiating table through a tough stance. The Trump administration's tough policy toward Iran is clear: to contain Iran's influence and foster Israel. If Europe and the United States work together to increase sanctions against Iraq, it will stimulate Iran to make a tougher response.
Technically, the Fibonacci retreat position of $57.67 per barrel, drawn from the rapid downward trend from October 3, 2018 to December 24, 18, is the sustained resistance position of crude oil, which is six times lower than this year's resistance to the rise in crude oil prices. Oil prices were tested again in the early hours of this morning, but not successfully, and prices are now falling slightly. If the rise in oil prices succeeds in breaking through this point, the next target position will look at the key position of $60.00 per barrel. If the situation continues to test and consolidate, the bottom of the oil price is supported near the price position in recent days, at $56.71 a barrel.
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