If you keep an eye on it, you can begin to see the outline of the upcoming federal election.
The most important front-the duel over tax cuts-is still being laid out. With parliament returning to work Monday in the last two weeks of winter vacation, Labour has yet to say whether it will agree to the final phase of the seven-year income tax cuts proposed by the Unionparty government in its May budget. It has agreed to a plan for the first three years and called for a doubling of the tax cuts.
Many commentators argue that the scale of tax savings proposed by both sides-initially aimed at low-and middle-income groups-is only a small prank.
But it was a mistake. Few notice that the cost of living has risen to the top of the political agenda, as was the case in 2007, when discontent with issues such as higher mortgage rates offered Labour a chance to return to power.
A decade on, Aussie's cost-of-living situation has changed-almost completely upside down, but not in the slightest way.
When the cost of living dominated the 2007 election, incomes soared as a result of the mining boom. But families are feeling the pain of rising interest rates and rising prices.
Today, the pressure on households is not so much a result of rising prices-though still causing some pain, rather than weak wage growth.
By definition, households are better off only when their incomes are growing faster than overall prices. But for much of the decade, real wages have barely changed-and families are starting to notice.
In a speech to the Australian Industrial Group last week, Reserve Bank President (Philip Lowe) referred to the downturn in the economic context of the upcoming federal elections. He immediately referred to the biggest pain the Australian economy suffered: wage growth was unusually slow.
On the face of it, the situation is not so bad. Australia's economy has grown 3.1% over the past year, stronger than expected. Business investment outside the mining sector surged 10%, with growth in transport and renewable energy particularly strong.
But families are feeling the pressure. Household spending, which accounts for about 2/3 of Australia's GDP, grew by 2.9%.
Although employment growth has been fairly stable. More and more people keep their jobs or find new jobs, but we pay the price. Wages are still low-close to 2%, compared with 3% or 4%.
At the same time, household debt remains "very high", with the governor using a clever phrase saying that Sydney and Murben are going through a "period of adjustment."
"many people who borrowed money had expected their income to grow as fast as they used to, not now," Lowe said. "because their expectations have not been met, the real value of the debt is higher than they expected, which may affect their spending decisions."
Slow wage growth, coupled with debt legacies, "is eroding our shared sense of prosperity," Lowe said.
This is a dangerous new area for Australia's political and economic prospects. "if this continues, it will make the necessary economic reforms more difficult," Lowe warned.
In short, we are beginning to feel that the less prosperous we are, the harder it is to secure tough economic reforms that will actually ensure our future prosperity. It's like a downward spiral.
Tax reform-that is, shifting the tax burden to less distorted activities, such as consumption-is best done when the economy is in good shape and the state coffers are abundant enough to compensate the losers. But that era is over.
That's not to say that the upcoming election will not talk about tax reform, which has become a source of revenue for tax accountants. Before entering the polling station, confused voters no doubt need to consult to see if their lives will be better or worse under each party's leadership.