If you think the world we know can't get worse, don't worry: it'll happen soon.
In fact, it could happen in about 22 years, if we're lucky.
This is the estimate of historian Ian Morris, who wrote a groundbreaking book called War in 2014! What's the good?
Morris believes that war is very good for some things, that is, peace.
As long as one side continues to win all the wars in which they participate, people will eventually fear to fight against them, and we will live long and prosper.
In other words, living in the Roman Empire, when they burned your village and rape your women, they were pretty grim, but once all the dust settled, the men were enslaved or killed. Life is actually quite good.
Morris summarized the data for the past 15,000 years and found that as many as one in five people in stone-age tribal societies could die violently. In the first century, that figure was estimated to be only three or four out of 100.
This is true of almost all empires from Persia to England. Once the war wins, even the most autocratic rulers tend to just want their subjects to shut up, work hard and pay taxes.
Of course, for any country, the best way to ensure that its citizens do not struggle against one another, that they do not stand against the government, and that they are not subjected to external threats, is to ensure that their armed capabilities are strong, It was known to all that it would be futile to do so. Therefore, the state must absolutely monopolize violence.
The idea that peace can only be accompanied by some kind of conquest or constant threat of reprisal may sound frightening, but it is also the way in which world history has been running through the entire history of mankind. In fact, that's why we have a police force.
Idealists had long imagined a better world and created a theoretical utopia of absolute equality, but in fact they were trapped in totalitarianism every time they practiced.
Similarly, progressives often complain about the state of time today, but this is just unfair or oppressive compared to the imagination that has never been achieved. In short, the world must be more peaceful, prosperous and democratic than ever before.
In fact, if we go back to the first century, we will find that humanity is in the midst of the bloodiest, most brutal slaughter it has ever experienced, a war that should have ended all wars.
Many believe that Germany is betting that Britain will not go to war, and that Britain is undoubtedly Germany's most fearful force, but clearly it is not scared enough.
Caesar is sure to think that if the worst happens at the worst, Germany may push Britain up. Britain's reputation as a "global police" has waned as the UK has shifted its focus from military to economic advantage.
In short, the British Empire's belligerence was not enough, so the worst war began. The next generation led to a bigger, bloodier war, accompanied by unprecedented mass genocide. Overall, the first half of the 20th century may be the most complete period of death on the planet. It all boils down to the fact that there is no force enough to stop it from happening.
But, you might ask, does it have anything to do with anything?
Well, the problem is, we've had an extremely long period of global peace and stability since World War II. This is because there is a superpower in the world. Even during the Cold War, the United States has been in a dominant position and has hardly been challenged since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
At the end of World War II, two cities were razed by the fall of an atomic bomb. Since 1945, the two major conflicts between the East and the West have been the Korean War and the Vietnam War, which ended with a peaceful protest. In the second World War, the punishment for desertion was death. Americans are a bit like the captain of a high school football team. They want to be popular and win every game. They often bully small and thin people, but they usually try not to kill them wherever possible.
Instead, the United States just sits there, has the most powerful military power in the world, and silently dares to attack it or its partners. This is why New Zealand has been able to trade rubber boats throughout the Defence Force and is still not invaded by Western Samoa.
There is, of course, another problem. In an interview a few years ago with (BBC) 's (History Extra), Morris said the unprecedented period of peaceful rule in the United States could end in the late 1940s-when he was in Donald. Prediction before Trump (Donald Trump) was elected. There is no doubt that he now longs for this exciting optimism.
Morris called the prospect "really, really scary," which for Stanford professors, Cambridge's doctorate is itself a scary thing to say. So we have 22 years to put it together or we're all screwed up.
China is rising, Russia is again
America's power is waning, while its strategic alliances are waning. Its once unbreakable Pacific ally, the Philippines, is now ruled by a ferocious madman who has turned to Putin, without even an excuse for strategic co-operation with China, and its closest ally in Europe is now gone. Now alone. Even America's best friend, neighbouring Canada, has lost its temper over Trump's trade war.
The theory has always been that as China becomes economically freer, it will also become politically freer, but in fact the opposite is true. It uses its global market forces to double-suppress existing weird commune capitalist brands, and if anyone wants to propose a protest, they have to go to Hong Kong.
At the same time, within the United States, we have been addicted to the blunders of a member of the National Assembly in the middle of the crisis, as well as to Pauline. Hanson (Pauline Hanson) cried on TV that everyone she met ended up making a mess of her.
More importantly, all Trump followers and apostles should be equally restrained. No one cares about the feeling of injury or the defence of justice. The truth is, Trump himself doesn't matter unless America survives and wants to use him. In fact, it must be said that he has been very successful in the current nuclear threat. The world's greatest democracy could eventually become Kim Jong-un's truly understandable leader.
That is why the United States continues to be a major global power. Not because it is perfect, not even because it is good, but because if it falls, it will be replaced by something far, worse.