Australian dollar exchange rate
Australia's unexpectedly weak retail sales data raised questions about the strength of the country's economy after the Australian dollar suffered a setback on Tuesday, suggesting that the government budget, which came out later today, required a strong fiscal stimulus. After retail sales data were released, the Australian dollar fell about $0.002 to $0.7503, but was backed up by $0.7490 and a recent 11-month low of $0.7472.
China's trade report surprised exports and imports far better than expected, which also supported the Australian dollar. Domestic news has been less hot, with retail sales in Australia flat in March from the previous month and up only 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter, well below market forecasts, hampering expectations for faster economic growth.
[财]dollar currency rate
The dollar hovered near a four-month high on Tuesday, supported by rising U.S. bond yields and generally strong U.S. economic data, the strength of the dollar making it difficult for other major currencies, such as the euro, and other currencies, such as the Argentine peso, to fall sharply. The dollar index, which held steady at 92.76, rose overnight to a high of 92.974 since December 28. The euro fell below $1.19 against the dollar yesterday after weaker-than-expected German industrial orders and euro-zone investor confidence data, the latest boost to the dollar for the first time this year.
The euro, which rose 0.05 percent to $1.1929 against the dollar, fell to $1.1897 yesterday, its lowest level in more than four months. Expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates soon have fallen, and have been a major drag on the euro, on the basis of which weak economic data put more pressure on the euro. "some attention has been focused on Iran's nuclear issue, but the market has predigested most of the expectations," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he will announce Tuesday's decision on the future of the Iran nuclear deal, and Tehran has hinted that Iran could remain in the 2015 deal even if the United States withdraws. "while the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal may be a bad story for the dollar, the overall strength of the dollar in the short term can at least not be ignored, especially for emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso," Ishizuki said.
In recent weeks, the dollar has been supported by rising US bond yields and robust economic data. Despite Friday's mixed performance in U.S. non-farm employment data, the underlying strength of the labour market supports the Fed's expectations of a steady rate rise. Indeed, the normalization of US monetary policy has been much faster than in other countries and has been one of the elements that underpin the dollar.
Concerns about U.S. interest rate hikes continued, keeping Latin American currencies falling overnight, with Mexican, Chilean and Argentine currencies all down more than 1 percent and the Brazilian real down 0.84 percent. The fall in the Argentine peso was particularly pronounced. Argentina's central bank just raised interest rates on Friday. Emerging market currencies have been hit in recent weeks as investors cut high-yield asset positions as expectations of accelerated U.S. inflation and widening fiscal deficits could force the Fed to tighten policy more quickly. The dollar fell 0.1 percent against the yen to 108.990, reaching an overnight high of 109.400.
[法]RMB rate
The renminbi is expected to open around 6.3627 yuan against the dollar on Tuesday, about 43 points lower than the previous day, according to the renminbi exchange rate formation mechanism released by (CFETS), China's foreign exchange trading center.
Last day, the yuan closed at 6.3649 yuan against the dollar at sight, while the median price was 6.3584 yuan. According to the pricing mechanism, 65 points of today's mid-price movements reflect the effect of market supply and demand, and the 22:00 rise reflects the points needed to keep the basket of exchange rates virtually unchanged overnight; the "counter-cyclical factor" effect has not worked yet.
Reuters put the yuan at 6.3595 yuan against the dollar last day, a deviation of 11:00 in real terms from the foreign exchange trading center. The renminbi's CFETS index, which refers to the SDR (especially drawing Rights) basket index and the reference BIS (Bank for International Settlements) basket index, is 97.47, 98.21 and 100.42 respectively, according to the median price published by the CFETS last day.
Popularization of Foreign Exchange knowledge-Economic indicators affecting Exchange rate trend
Interpretation of the main Economic Indexes affecting the Exchange rate of Foreign Exchange
Gross domestic product (GDP):) is the total value of a country's total final products and services produced within a given period of time.
Current account balance: this is the broadest count of trade between the United States and the rest of the world. The data count U.S. trade in goods / services on a quarterly basis, including revenues from overseas investment and payments to overseas businesses. A long-term growing current account deficit is bad for the dollar.
Trade balance: the balance of imports and exports of goods and services in the United States. This is the most direct statistics of gross national product on net trade. The long-term deterioration of trade balances is reminiscent of the pressure on the dollar to fall.
Employment data for non-agricultural workers: monthly statistics of non-agricultural employment in the United States. This data will strongly affect the interest rate policy of the FED. It is very important data, is very reliable synchronous statistics for economic development. If employment numbers are strong, interest rates and the dollar will both rise. (conversely, interest rate exchange rates fall)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI:) measures changes in the cost of buying a fixed sample of goods. The CPI is generally seen as the best monthly indicator of US inflation. A rapid rise in CPI will drive bond yields (long-term interest rates) higher. Because investors demand a discount when holding long-term bonds. This would cost bondholders, making the dollar and dollar assets less attractive.
The producer price index (PPI:) measures the level of price movements in manufactured goods. Analysts are concerned about the rate of change in the "core" producer price index, excluding commodity and energy prices. The PPI excludes transportation, wholesale and retail costs. It does not measure the service sector. The rapid rise in the PPI can be seen as inflation, devaluing bonds and raising long-term interest rates. The impact on the dollar is often unclear and read in conjunction with other data.
Capital account income and expenditure: mainly describes a country's long-term, short-term capital flows.
Interest rate: interest rate is the return or cost of capital borrowed. A country's interest rate has a direct impact on the currency exchange rate. High-interest-rate currencies rise in demand and exchange rate appreciation because of higher returns; conversely, they depreciate.
Retail sales: sales of all consumer durables and non-durable goods, excluding services. Strong retail sales data are generally bad news for the bond market and good news against the dollar.
Industrial production: the Fed's statistical indicator of the total output of manufacturing, extraction and utilities. Commodity producers account for 40% of US revenues. If growth in industrial production speeds up, it will first benefit the dollar, which in turn will put pressure on raising interest rates. "excessive" growth can lead to bottlenecks in production, resulting in higher production prices and the threat of inflation.
Orders for consumer durable goods: the value of orders for consumer durable goods (or goods that can be used for more than three years) received by monthly statistical manufacturers. The increase in orders suggests that demand has exceeded supply and that imbalances in the production market threaten long-term economic growth and price stability. This will increase pressure on the dollar and interest rates to rise.
The Purchasing managers Index (NAPM or PMI):) is based on a survey of corporate purchasing managers. The index above 50 means purchasing managers expect further improvement in production conditions. The NAPM reading will rise while consumption remains healthy. A surge in manufacturing demand will limit capacity and push up producer prices. Overall, if the NAPM reading is far greater than 50, the dollar's interest rate exchange rate will rise.