USDCAD
Last week, the Canadian dollar maintained a strong trend, rising as high as 1.3261 to its highest level since late March. A series of Canadian data released last week performed well, pushing the Canadian dollar higher. Among them, Canada recorded C $970 million in international merchandise trade in April, better than the previous value of C $2.34 billion (revised value). Canadian exports rose to C $50.7 billion in April from the previous value of C $50.05 billion (revised value), and the trade deficit hit a six-month low. In addition, Canadian labour market data were released on Friday, with unemployment falling to an all-time low of 5.4 percent in May, ahead of expectations and 5.7 percent, although employment fell in May, with 27700 full-time jobs and 0 part-time jobs, both below expectations and expectations. As can be seen from the report, although the number of free jobs has changed greatly, the labor market performance is still very stable, implying strong overall economic growth. U.S. non-farm payrolls data released at the same time fell short of expectations, putting pressure on the dollar to boost the Canadian dollar, which rose more than 60 points in the short term after the data were released. In the face of a global economic recession, Canada`s economic fundamentals have been particularly strong since the first quarter of this year and are expected to grow continuously in the second quarter. If Canada`s economic continues to perform well, the Bank of Canada is much less likely to cut interest rates and the Canadian dollar will be further dominant. From the technical point of view, the currency can act strongly, falling for several consecutive trading days, the level of 1.3295 has changed from support level to resistance level, and the new support level is 1.3207 level.
USDAUD
The Australian dollar strengthened steadily last week, rising to 0.7020, a one-month high. On Tuesday, the Bank of Australia announced a 25 basis point cut in cash interest rates to 125 percent, a record low, the first rate cut after keeping interest rates unchanged for nearly three years. The Bank of Australia is optimistic about Australia`s economic, saying it is adjusting its policy to support sustained economic growth and increase confidence in inflation, and does not rule out a possible policy adjustment until inflation reaches its target level. On the contrary, expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States have increased, the dollar has weakened sharply and the Australian dollar has rebounded. Other basic information in Australia has gradually surfaced, with the first-quarter GDP released on Wednesday rising 0.4 percent from a quarter-on-quarter to 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent below expectations. In the first quarter, GDP recorded 1.8 percent below the previous value of 2.3 percent, the slowest increase in nearly a decade since the financial crisis. Although the RBA did not specify in its interest rate resolution whether it would cut interest rates further, a series of data suggest that Australia`s economic is weak and that the RBA is likely to take a step further in its looser monetary policy and launch more stimulus economic. In addition, last week about the US-Mexican trade issues put pressure on the commodity currency Australian dollar. However, according to the latest news, the United States and Mexico reached an agreement on Saturday, the United States plan to impose tariffs on Mexico will be suspended indefinitely, Mexico agreed to take "strong measures" to curb illegal immigrants through Mexico. From the technical analysis, the Australian dollar bulls are blocked by 50 per cent withdrawal level 0.7019. If the long head kinetic energy is insufficient, it is expected to resume downward, with a support level of 0.6955 below.
USDJPY was in a standoff with the dollar last week, with the yen basically maintaining a narrow shock between 108.60 and 107.80. Based on fundamentals, ADP employment data on Wednesday were disappointing and recorded their lowest level in nearly nine years, paving the way for Friday`s likely slowdown in the number of non-farm payrolls. On Friday, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States rose or decreased to 75000 in May, far below expectations of 185000 and 263000 (revised), a three-month low; the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. The slowdown in employment growth was mainly due to the decline in private non-farm payrolls, which recorded only 90,000, well below the previous value of 205000. The performance in other areas was also unsatisfactory, with the manufacturing population recorded only 3000 after the May quarter, below previous and expected values. After the release of non-farm payrolls, the yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to a low of 1.79.1 percent since December 2017 because the data were lower than expected and the dollar was under pressure. The yield on the five-year Treasury note fell below 1.80 percent, the lowest level since September 2017, and expectations for a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve increased further. The negative impact of trade tensions and slowing global economic growth is rising, with economic fundamentals in the United States likely to weigh on the dollar and boost demand for the safe-haven currency, the yen. From the technical point of view, the currency still has an excellent trend against short. The yen is supported at 23.6% withdrawal 108.02, and the upper resistance level is 109.00 integer level. If the test continues to test 38.2%, the withdrawal level will be 110.05.
| Time (GMT) | country | event |
| Monday | ||
| 8:30 | Britain | British Industrial output value in April (month-on-month ratio) |
| Tuesday | ||
| 8:30 | Britain | (ILO) unemployment rate of the International Labour Organization in April (3 months) |
| 12:30 | America | The final demand for PPI in May in the United States is month-to-month ratio. |
| 23:50 | Japan | Japan`s PPI in May from the same period last yea |
| Wednesday | ||
| 12:30 | America | Month-on-month comparison of CPI in May in the United States |
| 14:30 | America | Us May 31 DOE US crude Oil inventory |
| Thursday | ||
| 01:30 | Australia | Australia 5 09:0 |
| 09:00 | Euroland | The industrial output value of the euro area in April has been adjusted quarterly and month-on-month. |
| Fri ( Friday ) | ||
| 12:30 | America | Retail sales in the United States in May from month to month |
| 12:30 | America | Industrial output in the United States in May (month-on-month ratio) |
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