USDCAD
Yesterday, the entire financial market was digesting the US-Mexico trade agreement and the impact of non-agricultural use in the US. Investors were more cautious, and the Canadian dollar rose slightly during the Asian session, with little fluctuations in the market. At the end of last month, US President Trump did not effectively prevent illegal immigrants from entering the United States and threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States. According to the plan, the United States imposed a 5% tariff from June 10, increased to 10% from July 1, and increased to 25% on October 1. Trump`s decree caused the US-Mega trade agreement to burst, which caused a huge blow to the future trade situation in Canada and Mexico, sparking investor concerns about the global trade situation. The good news is that since last Wednesday, the United States and Mexico began negotiations and reached a trade and immigration agreement on Friday at local time. The United States announced that it will suspend the indefinite extension of tariffs on Mexico. As a result of this positive news, risk appetite has subsided, and the Canadian dollar rose slightly after the market opened on Monday. After the ups and downs of the previous week, the market has become more sensitive and cautious, and investors can continue to wait and see the market`s direction further. Economic data that deserves attention this week are Wednesday`s US inflation data and Friday`s US retail sales data. If the performance of the economic data is disappointing again, then the market expects the possibility of the Fed to cut interest rates further, and the Canadian dollar may be boosted. From a technical perspective, the Canadian dollar is narrowly arranged within the new range, with 1.3295 as the upper resistance and 1.3207 as the lower support.
GBPUSD
The pound fell from its peak yesterday, falling sharply in the European session and erasing gains from the previous trading day, with an intraday low of 1.2651, rebounding slightly, falling 0.3 percent in the day. Economic data released yesterday showed a sharp slowdown in economic in the UK in April. In the United Kingdom, GDP recorded-0.4% in April, down from the previous value and forecast value-0.1%; in the UK, GDP recorded 0.2% in April 3 months, which was in line with market expectations but lower than 0.3%; and in April, industrial output in the United Kingdom recorded-2.7% month-on-month, worse than the market forecast of-1.0%, compared with 0.7% in the previous month, while the UK`s industrial output value in April was-2.7%, which was worse than the market forecast of-1.0%, compared with the previous value of 0.7%. Manufacturing production in the UK fell sharply in April from a month earlier of-3.9 per cent compared with 0.9 per cent; in addition, the balance of merchandise trade in the UK after the quarter adjustment was-12.113 billion pounds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 0.840 percent after the weak data were released, while sterling bulls were hit by a short-term drop of more than 30 points. In addition, a vote for Conservative leaders will take place on Thursday, with Johnson, Britain`s former foreign secretary, one of the hot candidates, with a tough Brexit attitude that increases the risk of Brexit without an agreement and could put the pound under downward pressure. This week investors can pay more attention to the guidance given to sterling by the Tory leadership dispute. From the technical point of view, although the pound has briefly fallen, but the downward trend line has a certain supporting role, in the short term, it is still possible to continue upward, the upper resistance level is 1.2746, if the breakthrough looks to 61.8% back to 1.2822, the lower support level is 1.2550.
EURUSD
Yesterday the euro trend was more stable, first a small decline and then rose, the overall maintained in the range of around 1.1300 fluctuations. This week the European Union will discuss punitive measures against Italy`s budget deficit plan. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Salvini said yesterday that Italy`s government does not want to confront the European Union, whose rules are the cause of Italy`s budget problems, arguing that the only way to stimulate economic growth is to pay the debt and lower taxes. Italian Prime Minister Conte also threat will resign to express his dissatisfaction with the punishment imposed by the European Union. Italy`s defense of its budget excess has aroused dissatisfaction in the European Union, and tensions between the European Union and Italy have escalated again. The euro fell below 1.1300 integers to a record low of 1.1289. The ADP employment data released last Wednesday were disappointing, recording their lowest level in nearly nine years; the number of non-farm payrolls rose or decreased to 75000 in May, far below the expected value of 185000 and the previous value of 263000 (revised), a three-month low. Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased as U.S. economic fundamentals continue to weaken. In addition, the escalating trade war has dragged down the trend of global economic, and market expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth have also dragged down the recovery of economic in the euro zone, which is difficult for the euro to stand alone. From a technical point of view, the euro rose for several days in a row at 50 per cent withdrawal of 1.1336 blocked, the lower support level of 1.1106.
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