If there is any victory, holding on means everything.
—— Rilke
Yesterday many media reported on the British epidemic prevention strategy. Because these media are not very professional, let many netizens scoff at the British "group epidemic prevention ", think this is capitalist countries politicians, only for their own tenure to protect economic, regardless of people`s lives. And then check to see our "semi-shock" national anti-epidemic has been close to a full victory, which country is good which country, not at a glance?
The article is not intended to contrast the epidemic prevention policies of China and Britain, or China and any country.
There are two questions:
First, how do we look at the outbreak of the new crown virus, this is a cognitive problem;
Second, it is a question of implementation of what policies each country has adopted to respond to the outbreak of the new coronavirus, following a recognition
—— this article, note that this article only talks about the former! !! Not to compare national implementation.
And when it comes to "cognition" of the epidemic, I find that British and German experts have a high degree of agreement!
The British expert is Sir Varence (Patrick Vallance), the British chief scientific adviser, and the German expert is Christian Drosten (Christian Drosten), the German virologist, director of the Institute of Virology, Berlin Charite Hospital. His professional position in Germany is like that of our country`s Zhong Nanshan —— So I would like to ask you again to hear their voices. Neither of the top two scientists`" perceptions "of the epidemic contains political tendencies, but purely scientific analysis:
Viewpoint 1: experts in england and germany first believe that the virus will persist.
Let`s start with my own opinion.
I have believed since February that the virus will persist, and yesterday I sent a special Weibo to explain the reason :" the new crown virus can not be "eliminated ", there are three reasons:
First, the "intermediate host" that can be passed on is not found. The intermediate host is not necessarily "wild animal ", don`t think it`s okay not to eat wild animal. What if the middle host is a bird?
(2) Second, the new crown virus is too combine with the human body, and German scientists have found that it is 20 times as good as the SARS and too adaptable to humans;
Third, the global pandemic, can China close the world? "
Why two experts in England and Germany think the virus will persist, I have not looked for relevant information. Let`s not go into details.
Either way, they think the virus will last. After predicting that the virus will persist, both experts in britain and germany began to assess the "worst" situation, that is, the absence of drugs and vaccine, and vaccine. Here is an introduction: first of all, in the next year, must be no vaccine, production can not come out.
that means definitely we are going through the winter of the end of 2020 without vaccine; secondly, whether vaccine can succeed after the next year can not say 100%! Because the new coronavirus is a RNA virus, the mutation is fast; third, the most promising drug is redcevir, but not yet officially available; and even if it is available, it is a post-infection drug.
Above all these three points, the two experts in England and Germany are in the absence of specific drugs without vaccine to assess the trend of virus development.
Viewpoint two: Anglo-German experts believe that only two situations can end the virus epidemic.
A first is effective vaccine; a second is the need for "population immunization" after several rounds of virus epidemics over several years.
vaccine won`t talk. Group immunity explains: because the basic transmission coefficient of the new crown virus is R0 3, the virus can not be transmitted after two thirds of the total population is infected, that is ,60 to 70 percent of the population gets group immunity. (R0 is three, one person infects three people, if two of them are already infected, then only one infection is left, and the R0 attenuates below one)
Conclusion: Only "vaccine ", wins! Didn`t vaccine, that only wait for people to fill the pit, wait for the virus to infect 60% of the human immunization "! (Even Rhett Sivert is a post-infection drug)
Viewpoint three: different countries of prevention and control means, can only change the virus epidemic curve.
The best curve is "smooth" growth. This is the only way to ensure adequate medical resources for "regular" treatment without "secondary disasters" of a medical run.
In China ," semi-shock "epidemic prevention, similar to the artificial forced spread of the virus in a short period of time to the lowest (provincial 0.97 cases /100,000, far below the flu 150 cases /100,000), this is now good.
But first, the economic sacrifice is too big, the social life is too abnormal. And the economic is not good, the society is abnormal, also can die;
Second, what month is "half shock" ready? May must return to normal? After returning to normal, the new crown virus will still start to epidemic;
Third, after returning to normal, a new wave of virus epidemic, for the provinces in Hubei Province, there are too few people who have immunity, very few, the virus again "still into the world of no one ." What then? Is it another city?
In britain, where they are prepared to down the curve at least for the time being, not particularly artificially, and hope that the current controls will keep the wave peaks as long and smooth as possible, similar to "braised ", allowing as many people as possible to become infected and begin to produce group immunity (group immunization is not done overnight and takes years, but it is always good to start now).
By the winter of 2020, the UK will be much less at risk. But britain`s problem is that if it does n` t control it, it`s just like italy, not "braised ", but" deflagrated ". What about running medical resources? Therefore, China and the United Kingdom two means of prevention and control, which is better or worse, I do not comment. Just list it here.
It is worth mentioning that experts in Germany are similar to those in the United Kingdom. Christian Drosten even hopes to take advantage of the summer, better to infect young people, anyway, young people can basically recover, so this winter is better. The above is an introduction to the views of experts in Germany.
Here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. We must be in awe of the new crown virus and not speak lightly of victory. without vaccine, there is no victory.
2. If, according to experts from Britain and Germany, the virus will persist for a long time, then the current domestic policy of prevention and control, riding the tiger "half shock" when? After the resumption of work, what about the return of the virus? many problems, government need to have a clear strategy. Or at least have a B plan to deal with the long-lasting virus
3, need popular science! government also need to publish a large number of data, including, among other things, data on infected populations, infection patterns and so on, so that people can better understand the virus and do a good job of self-defense; government let people really understand the objective reality of "no vaccine,, no victory "; government also let people take off their masks and replace them with effective protection from" washing hands "
You can`t ban speech. Next time it`s popular, there`s still a great need for early warning of rumors and whistles
The elderly and people with basic diseases need to be very careful! Continued high risk until vaccine!
6. Britain and Germany government and experts are really not fools or politicians who ignore the lives of the people. Their idea of epidemic prevention is scientific, and, farsighted. And now they dare to tell the people the truth :" Many of your families will lose dear ones ".
Postscript: in mid-February, I think the goal of epidemic prevention can not be to annihilate the virus, because the virus will exist for a long time, and can achieve the virus R0 less than 1, is the more pragmatic goal.
But for a month, I always thought there was something wrong with it. It was not until today that I looked at the views of British and German experts that I found that my thinking was not "brave enough ".
"No victory without vaccine ," is a layer of window paper, punctured to see the complete picture. is more cruel.
