Affected by the new crown epidemic, many countries in Europe to implement city isolation measures, the past no longer noisy. Closed schools, closed doors, social alienation... The daily lives of all have been affected unprecedentedly.
The world is on an unprecedented scale. When will the new crown end and our lives return to normal?
British Prime Minister Johnson said he believes Britain may need 12 weeks to "reverse the situation" and let the new crown virus "roll out ".
Is that so simple? The British Broadcasting Corporation Health and Science journalist Gallagher (James Gallagher) said that even if the number of cases fell in the next three months, it was still a long way from the end of the epidemic.
It could take a long time, maybe even a few years.
In the case of the United Kingdom, such a large-scale embargo policy is not sustainable in the long term. its social and economic losses will be devastating.
As a result, what States urgently need is an "exit strategy "(exit strategy) on how to lift restrictions and return to normalcy in due course.
But that doesn`t mean the new coronavirus will disappear. If you remove the blocking policies that inhibit the virus, the number of cases is likely to surge again.
Not only Britain, but every country faces the same problem: no exit strategy.
Mark Woolhaus (Mark Woolhouse), professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh (University of Edinburgh), UK, said the biggest question was whether we had an exit strategy and how to get out of the epidemic.
This is a huge scientific and social challenge.
There are three paths before us:
- vaccine
- Immune enough people through infection
- change our behaviour/society permanently
Each of the above options will have the ability to reduce virus transmission. Let`s take a specific look.
vaccine -- at least 12-18 months
vaccine can make people immune, so they don`t get sick. But the vaccine for the new crown will have to wait at least 12-18 months.
Another approach is population immunization (herd immunity), whereby about 60 per cent of the population is infected with immunized so that the virus does not cause another outbreak.
As a rule, vaccine go on the market first by animal testing and then by human testing. Recently, however, the US authorities allowed researchers to conduct vaccine human trials directly.
Although vaccine research is proceeding at an unprecedented rate, there is no guarantee that it will succeed. At the same time, vaccination needs to be carried out globally.
Even if everything goes well and vaccine can be done between December and 18, it still means we have to wait a long time.
Group immunization -- at least two years
Natural immunity also takes at least two years.
Britain`s short-term strategy is to reduce cases to manageable proportions as far as possible, preventing hospitals from becoming overburdened. If hospital intensive care beds run out, the number of death will rise sharply.
Certain restrictions can be lifted once the number of cases has dropped. If the case starts to rebound, another round of restrictions is required.
Sir Patrick Valance (Sir Patrick Vallance), chief scientific adviser to the British government, said "there can be no absolute timetable ". That is, no one knows when (the outbreak ends).
As more and more people become infected, group immunity can also be formed inadvertently. However, this may take many years.
"What we`re talking about here is :" What we` re talking about here is to keep transmission at a certain level and then hope that only a small percentage of people in Britain will be infected. "
"If we can sustain the situation for more than two years, perhaps by then there will be enough people in the UK to be infected to provide a degree of community protection. "
But it is still a question whether the immunity will last. For example, people are less resistant to the coronavirus that causes symptoms of the common cold, which is why people may be infected with the same virus many times in their lives.
change behaviour -- no clear endpoint
A third way is to Professor Woolhaus, is to change our behavior and behavior permanently and maintain low transmission rates. This may include measures already in place, or stricter testing and isolation measures.
Developing drugs that can successfully treat new coronavirus Covid-19 infections can also help.
As soon as people develop symptoms during the so-called "transmission control "(transmission control) process, they take medication immediately to prevent them from transmitting the virus to others.
alternatively, treating patients in hospitals, reducing the death rate and reducing the pressure of intensive care. By doing so, States government be able to cope with more cases and no further embargo is required.
In addition, an increase in the intensive care unit would do the same, as it would increase the ability to cope with larger outbreaks.
Professor chris whitty (Prof.Chris Whitty), chief medical consultant, said, referring to britain`s exit strategy, that vaccine was clearly a way out in the long run and hoped to succeed as soon as possible.
"Globally, the scientific community will provide us with solutions. "
