Americans will go to the polls on Nov.3 and decide to send Joe Biden or Donald Trump to the White House.
Who wins who loses the unpredictable election night is coming, what details need to pay attention to that night, and what are the key points?
A few important details:
To win the US presidential election, it is not a total vote. A so-called Electoral College (electoral college) system is the real determinant of the outcome. Candidates need to get at least 270 more than half of the 538 voters to win.
Compared with the previous election, the number of mail votes is many million more than the previous election. This means that it will certainly take several days to wait for the results because of the need to collect and calculate the mailed ballot papers.
Moreover, because of the unprecedented surge in the mailing of ballot papers, the in the early stages of the counting are not necessarily winning, so be alert to the results of the early stages.
Election keywords:
lead sheep state (Bellwether state): or wind state, like ohio and missouri. According to past experience, who wins in the state almost means he can win the big position.
Exit poll: a face-to-face poll conducted by an elector leave the polling place. The figures obtained from exit polls are different from the actual ballot records, which will be used for the final result of the election.
Electoral College: the President and Vice-President of the United States are elected by the Electoral College. A group of electors, Meet every four years to participate in the election. A few weeks after the election, Vote for president and vice president. The number of electors in the United States is determined by the number of councillor in the parliament Senate and Senate, Two senator plus congressman; per state There are at least three electors even in the least populated states (2 senator plus 1 congressman). The Electoral College consists of 538 persons, One man, one vote, More than 270 electoral votes won, It doesn't matter whether the voters vote for the majority or the minority. Usually the electors vote for the most voters in the state.
Prediction and confirmation of votes: on election night, the calculation of votes will be used to predict the possible winners of each state and national vote. However, the states will not begin to "confirm" the results until sufficient votes are counted and a clear winner can be announced. These include months of voting (mailing), exit polls on election day and counting of actual votes on that day.
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Red or blue states: states that vote for a particular party, red states are Republican, and blue states represent Democrats.
How do you know who wins?
This year's influx of mail votes will make it difficult to know who wins in the early days.
Different states have different rules on how and when to start counting mailing ballots. That means there is a big gap between when they will present the state's final vote.
Some states, such as florida and arizona, began pre-processing ballots a few weeks before november 3rd. But other states, such as wisconsin and pennsylvania, will have to wait until election day to start processing the votes, so their counting may be slower.
According to past experience, who wins in Ohio and Missouri almost means he can win the big place.
What is more confusing is that the deadlines for states to accept mail voting vary.
Some states, such as georgia, regard only postal ballots received on and before november 3 as valid. In Ohio, however, as long as it is sent before November 3, the post ballot papers received thereafter are considered valid.
In any case, it will certainly take weeks in some states to get a final and complete vote. This means that we can hardly predict which day we can determine the winner.
However, this was not the case in past elections.
In the past few elections, you can usually set your watch to 23:00 East American time, when the votes are roughly calculated and the results will soon be known. The 2008 election was on time at 11 p.m., the West Bank roughly knew the outcome an hour after the vote, and the 2012 election was 15 minutes late.
Last election, however, until 1:35 p.m. east time, Trump was certain that he would not win the presidency until pennsylvania beat clinton (Hilary Clinton), was considered impossible.
Don't confuse these traps
There are other things to pay attention to this year.
First of all, the results of the early counting may make you think who will win. This is partly due to the large differences in the counting of votes between the states.
In some states, the number of people voting in person on election day will be calculated first. These votes are expected to majority of supporters are scheduled to vote on november 3rd, these votes are expected to be favorable Trump. but in other states, vote will be counted either by mail before november 3rd or with the polling packages at polling stations that day, and preliminary results in those states could be beneficial to biden, as democrats tend to vote by vote by post than republican supporters.
"Election fraud" is also a growing concern, as Trump campaign has repeatedly mentioned. Importantly, however, election fraud is extremely rare in the United States and there is no evidence that mail voting is particularly prone to fraud. A study by the Brennan Center for Justice (Brennan Center for Justice) in 2017 indicated that overall voter fraud rates in the United States ranged from 4 to 9 per 100,000.
What if there were no clear winners that night?
If there is no clear outcome on November 3 that knows who wins, we will have to wait days or weeks to complete the voting calculation. It usually doesn't collect all votes that night, and this year may take longer.
Also, there may be law disputes in the election, which will increase uncertainty about the outcome and mean the court may play a role.
Particularly noteworthy states
We know the end result will be slow, but there are still some states that may provide us with preliminary clues.
North Carolina will close at 19:30 local time, and the state will count votes faster.
Trump won North Carolina in 2016 slight margin in 2016, and the two parties face a fierce battle there. Whoever wins will mean a good night for them.
Then, at 8 pm local time, the last polling station in Florida will be closed. In past elections, both parties have lost and won in this swing state, and this year the situation is similar. In particular, in Florida, votes before election day will be counted and mailed, and the situation will be more favorable to Biden.
Swing State Competition
At 9 p.m. local time, polling stations.
Arizona has counted votes since October 20. He won here Trump 2016 year, but now polls show Biden slightly ahead. In Florida and Arizona, early voters may vote for Biden because his supporters also prefer to vote early or by post before the election day.
In other states, officials waited until november 3rd to count the votes. This means that we will have to fall into a situation where the results will affect the United States.
In Ohio, the vote ends at 19:30 local time. County government will provide preliminary counting results on election day, but will not issue any more counts until the final total number of votes is verified, but the verification of votes will be completed by November 28. Ohio is not just an important swing state, but also a presidential-elect's prediction state: every time someone wins the state since the second world war, they can win the presidency.
Pennsylvania's vote ends at 20:00 p.m. local time on election day. Both candidates who want to go to the White House have made it an important battleground, because it was Biden's birthplace and Trump won by one percentage point in 2016.
In Wisconsin and Michigan, voting will be closed at 21:00 local time. Democrats have been working in the state since Hillary Clinton lost there in 2016. Now, some polls show Biden in the lead, but the state is still in the grip. The neighboring state of Michigan, another important swing state, is also closely watched, and the state's final results are crucial to the victory of the two candidates.
Other elections
The presidential election is not the only election.
Both parties will pay close attention to the U.S. Senate election, and current polls show Republicans have more than three seats in the Democratic Party.
Trump comrade-in-arms graham (Lindsay Graham) faces a crisis in his political career in south carolina as he faces serious challenges from Jaime Harrison, a democrat. Graham has been in the state since 2003 senator, but because of his loyalty to Trump relationship, he is no longer supported by some voters.
The Republican senator Collins (Susan Collins) in Maine may soon be unemployed. Ms collins is currently one of the few moderate members of the party, but because of Trump relationship, she may still be punished for losing the election in this unpopular place.
Not only that. The United States is also considering more than 100 voting measures. The referendum in california is seeking to overturn a law, law that would eliminate cash altogether and bail, a risk assessment before deciding whether to release suspects from prison before a trial begins.
Moreover, marijuana questions arise in Arizona, Montana, New Jersey montana, new jersey and south dakota, where people will decide whether to legalize entertainment marijuana. Also, in Mississippi, voters will vote whether to approve marijuana for medical treatment.
