Passengers at the train station in shanghai on february 9,2020 wear masks. REUTERS/Aly Song
BEIJING, Feb.17(Reuters)- China`s urban, rural and street villages, north and south, have remained deserted in order to prevent and control the epidemic, despite a gradual return to work, while a meeting of the Central Political Bureau has stressed the importance of achieving this year`s expected economic social goals, highlighting the importance of stable economic and stable employment as well as preventing the epidemic. However, it is not easy to find a balance between resumption of work and prevention.
For local government, the current epidemic prevention and control is the top priority in assessing its achievements, and even in non-infectory battlefields, it has focused more on personnel control and somewhat delayed the process of re-employment. In helping companies through the crisis, China needs a package of relief policies, such as tax relief and tax relief.
"It is imperative to resolve the contradiction between the current measures to prevent and control the spread of the epidemic and the movement of labour. We also hope to minimize economic and livelihood losses, while doing a good job of prevention and control, effectively and safely promote labor to the post. Cai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently told the media.
On the one hand, he points out that the flow of factors of production is at the heart of the economic activity of the market; on the other hand, the key to the prevention and control of the epidemic is to control the effectiveness of the transmission of the virus, hoping that the epidemic will reach the inflection point as soon as possible, and minimize the loss of life.
He believes that due to the delay of migrant workers returning to the city, the lack of enterprise start-up, the decrease of new growth and management, resulting in a significant decrease in new employment and increase unemployment, small and medium-sized enterprises workers to the post rate is low, non-standard form of orders, to bear the rental of plant equipment, raw materials costs, salary payment and social security contributions, the impact is also the first to bear the brunt.
"But the epidemic will not diminish China`s potential growth capacity, and none of these effects will be long-term. What we are striving for is to limit the adverse effects to the first quarter and not to deliver them as far as possible to the second quarter to avoid the full-year impact. "Cai Fang said.
Last week`s meeting of the central political bureau stressed that this year is the year when a well-off society was built in an all-round way and the 13th Five-Year Plan ended. Government at all levels should try to minimize the impact of the new outbreak of coronary pneumonia, maintain a smooth operation of economic and social harmony and stability, and strive to achieve the objectives set by the central party.
China`s economic growth is expected to plunge to 4.5 percent in the current quarter, the slowest since the financial crisis, according to a Reuters survey of economic analysts.
** Increase in the urgency of resumption of work **
As of february 16th,24th, china`s mainland had 2,048 new confirmed cases,105 new dead cases and 1,563 new suspected cases, the national health commission announced on monday. The number of new cases rose slightly over the previous day, but the number of new confirmed cases in other provinces outside Hubei Province has fallen for 13 consecutive days.
From the data, China`s epidemic prevention and control achievements are obvious, but whether it can be inferred that the epidemic inflection point is obviously more need professional judgment. Only for the remaining 10 months of the year, it is clear that having workers in the factors of production return to work as soon as possible is also a realistic need for current economic stability, especially employment.
A woman in the central city, Ms. Zhang, who had sunk from the authorities to work in the community, confessed that the community had demanded 14 days of isolation of all outsiders, but now that the isolation was complete, when the quarantined persons were required to issue relevant certificates to return to work units, they had to fill out various forms," it is best to keep people at home and not run around, so that no one is responsible. "
She noted that many of her city`s neighborhoods were completely closed to entry and exit. Today`s daily task is to deal with all kinds of micro-access checks, in addition to the people who watch the community. It is not their concern as to whether companies can start work without affecting employment. This may also point to the distance between grass-roots work responsibilities and macro policy objectives under epidemic prevention and control.
Mr. Wang, who returned to his hometown in rural Hebei province a year ago to celebrate the New Year, said that his office had demanded a return to work by the end of the month, and that he would be isolated for 14 days because of the closed management of the village. "
It also highlights the ability of local government to adapt to changes in the situation and the actual timely adjustment of relevant control measures under the premise of the greatest epidemic prevention and control. The latest china economic commentary, released by china gold macro, said the pace of resumption of work was slow, demand indicators continued to be weak, and policy continued to emphasize expanding domestic demand.
A meeting of the central political bureau pointed out that the key areas of non-epidemic prevention and control should focus on the implementation of district-level precision prevention and control, and co-ordinate the epidemic prevention and control with the restoration of economic social order. In accordance with the principle of scientific prevention and precision policy, the county as a unit to determine the risk levels of different counties, district classification to formulate differentiated prevention and control strategy. It is necessary to seek truth from facts and do a good job of prevention and control, and correct biased and extreme practices in a timely manner, without simplifying and stopping them, so as to minimize the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the production and life of the masses.
In the future, it will be mainly migrant workers returning to work and students returning to school, with fewer official business and fewer tourist trips, deputy minister minister liu xiaoming of the ministry of transportation said at a press conference on saturday on the prevention and control of the returning epidemic. Migrant workers are expected to return to work by the end of February, with a return passenger capacity of about 300 million, about 80 million by now, about 120 million by the end of February and more than 100 million by March.
As of February 16,29,230 industrial enterprises above the Jiangsu level had resumed work, covering 65 percent of the total, or 15 percentage points above the national average.
** More sun-kissed response to epidemic policies**
In addition to balancing the contradiction between returning to work and prevention and control of the epidemic, China has also introduced many measures to help companies respond to the epidemic, including cutting taxes and fees and postponing social security payments. The impact of the outbreak is all-encompassing and the impact is on all sectors; therefore, these phased, temporary policy preferences need more "sunshine ".
Cai fang believes that because of the impact of the epidemic on macroscopic economic, in nature, is the impact of supply and demand on both sides; in time, is a quarterly short-term effect; in degree, only a one-time and no sequelae of the disturbance. Therefore, it is still necessary to adhere to the "flood flooding" type of strong stimulus, while macro policies should also make a positive and more accurate response.
He also suggested that monetary policy moderately strengthens counter-cyclical regulation, and financial institutions increase support to help small and medium-sized enterprises with financing difficulties. We will continue to implement the tax and fee reduction policy, especially to strengthen the policy of reducing the burden on small and medium-sized enterprises, and make special financial relief arrangements. To expand and speed up investment in infrastructure and other projects, on the basis of making up the short board and optimizing the structure, we should pay special attention to the role of investment in promoting the revitalization of small and medium-sized enterprises and the effect of expanding employment.
China`s Ministry of Commerce issued a letter on Monday to promote 19 measures in Shandong Province to speed up the resumption of work and production of foreign-invested enterprises and promote foreign investment, including increasing credit support and reducing related taxes and fees. It is necessary to promote the landing of large foreign-funded projects, implement laws and regulations on foreign investment, optimize the environment for foreign investment and protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investment in the light of the actual situation in the region.
What is needed now is a policy of relief, not a stimulus. Large-scale water release, large-scale investment, and stimulus to economic growth will deviate from the goal of relief and will not solve the current problems. "Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of the National Economic Institute of the China Reform Foundation, wrote that it is now time to set aside the goals inherent in the brain, such as ensuring growth, and focus on one thing: addressing the biggest difficulties faced by ordinary people and businesses in an emergency, and helping them to alleviate them and overcome them.
He pointed out that no matter fiscal policy, or monetary policy, cannot adopt simple water release, stimulus, expansion policy, should be targeted to alleviate the common people, enterprises face problems. Emergency, first.
Local government understands more about the problems facing companies and needs to take more responsibility and be more pragmatic. Policies should be more liberal, giving local government greater freedom to work through local solutions. Those who are not pragmatic and do not act should be held accountable, but should take the evaluation of the common people as the first criterion. "Wang Xiaolu said. (end)
