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A sharp drop in immigration will affect economic and housing in the long run

Source: xkb.com.au
[Economic News]     18 Jun 2020
For the first time since the Second World War, Australia's population growth was close to zero, with the departure of large numbers of permanent and temporary visa holders and the closure of its borders to international tourists, potentially having a significant impact on economic and house prices.
A sharp drop in immigration will affect economic and housing in the long run

International airports remain empty due to the closure of borders and a sharp drop in immigration


For the first time since the Second World War, Australia`s population growth was close to zero, with the departure of large numbers of permanent and temporary visa holders and the closure of its borders to international tourists, potentially having a significant impact on economic and house prices.

New visa numbers point to australia`s slowest population growth in 80 years, amid a series of warnings that the new-crown pneumonia epidemic is dragging its economic into recession, as well as important federal government stimulus economic policies, such as the exit of the Jobkeeper employment-insurance subsidy scheme on september 27.

Australia`s Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report shows that in March, April and May, the number of non-travellers leaving the country exceeded the number of arrivals by 30,280.

That figure is 50,000 fewer than in the three-month period of 2019, when non-travellers still added 23,000 to the country.

In March, April and May of last year, the number of temporary student visas entered reached 83,290, but in the same period this year only 70 student visa holders entered, while up to 15,370 temporary student visa holders left.

Between April and May last year ,131,310 people entered the country on permanent technical immigration visas, down from 23,240 this year.

The figures do not count those who enter the country on short-term travel visas, but the closure of international borders means that the figures are close to zero. Between March and May this year, the number of people with tourist visas leaving the country was 189,000 more than the number of people entering the country.

Visa figures provide a clearer insight into net immigration, which normally accounts for nearly two-thirds of Australia`s population growth.

government now expects that the current 1.5 per cent population growth rate, or nearly 372,000 people per year, will be halved as a result of the new-crown pneumonia epidemic, bringing the country`s population growth rate to the low level seen during the Second World War.

Because of immigration policy, Australia is one of the fastest growing countries in developed countries.

Population growth will now depend only on natural growth, says Liz Allen, a demographer at australia`s national university, but the number of births is likely to decline because of the economic impact of the epidemic on couples or partners of childbearing age.

A slowdown in the number of migrants and the overall population will have a long-term economic impact, she said.

"Australia is suffering from a brief and severe shock due to new crown pneumonia. While the lifetime of the shock may be short, its impact will reverberate in the medium to long term, especially for economic. "

"We are likely to see fewer young people entering the labour market, which will put more pressure on government to support economic ." in terms of economic drivers

Mr morrison`s (Scott Morrison) government plans to end its important $70 billion JobKeeper program by the end of september, as well as a $550-a-week subsidy for JobSeeker and other benefits for unemployed job seekers.

economics australian new bank (ANZ) said wednesday it expects economic to rebound 4% in the september quarter after a 5.7% contraction in june.

The bank, however, believes that the economic will then shrink by 0.6 per cent again in the last three months of the year, largely because the federal government cancelled key support measures during the outbreak.

"Apart from the extension of mortgage payments provided by banks and the temporary ban on landlords from expelling tenants, this poses a huge challenge for economic ," it said. "

"If those support were to be cancelled on the current timetable, the economic would deteriorate rapidly in the quarter of December, with both business and consumer confidence declining and could lead to a stagnant recovery. "

The ANZ expects the unemployment rate to reach 7.5% by the quarter of December, which will neither bring economic growth nor restore the job market to the crown virus level before 2022.

During the 1990-91 recession, Australia economic contracted for three quarters of the time.

The sharp drop in net immigration and near-zero population growth will hit economic through house markets, says merle of BIS Oxford Economics economic consultancy.

`This number will plummet, whether it`s zero or near zero ,` he said.

"We see an estimated 60,000 fewer migrants in the current fiscal year and another 150,000 fewer in the next fiscal year. "

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