GBPUSD
Sterling rebounded in the European market yesterday because of strong job market data and held steady after a small decline in the market. The unemployment rate in the UK for the three months of April, announced yesterday, was unchanged at 3.8 per cent from the previous value, in line with market expectations; the proportion of claims for unemployment benefits in the UK in May was 3.1 per cent, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.0 per cent; and the change in the number of claims for unemployment benefits in the UK in May was recorded at 23200, below the previous value of 24700; UK earnings averaged 3.1 percent a week in April from a year earlier, beating expectations of 3.2 percent. As can be seen from economic data, the unemployment rate is at its slowest level since 1975, wage growth is slow but faster than market expectations, and employment has slowed down. Yesterday, Bank of England member Flegg said that if Brexit goes well, the UK could raise interest rates more times and, if necessary, increase QE asset purchases. Subsequently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Brodbanter also said that if the UK economic growth, as expected by the central bank, interest rates could be raised faster than the market interest rate curve in May. The market reacted as soon as it heard the possible rate hike released by the Bank of England, spurring a short-term rise of more than 50 points above the 1.2720 mark. Judging from other fundamentals, the political crisis and the potential risk of Brexit caused by the battle between party leaders, the pound is still under downward pressure, and the exchange rate will fall in the future. From the technical point of view, although the pound has briefly fallen, but the downward trend line has a certain supporting role, in the short term, it is still possible to continue upward, the upper resistance level is 1.2746, if the breakthrough looks to 61.8% back to 1.2822, the lower support level is 1.2550.
AUDUSD
Since Monday, the dollar rose as a result of an agreement between the United States and Mexico on trade issues, and the Australian dollar began to fall from a high. Yesterday, the Australian dollar continued to be weak, falling in the Asian session, recording an intraday low of 0.6945, and the market remained volatile in the future. Economic data released yesterday showed that the current inflation level in the United States is more appropriate. The final demand for PPI in the United States in May was 0.1% in line with market expectations, but below 0.2%. The final demand in May in the United States recorded 1.8% in May from the same period last year, 2.0% below the expected value and 2.2% in the previous value. In the United States, the NFIB SME optimism Index in May recorded 105 above the previous and expected values. However, the PPI data, which have little impact on inflation, have not had a significant impact on the market since its release, and investors should continue to focus on today`s CPI data in the United States. At present, the trade situation is still an important factor affecting the market trend. Rising trade tensions between China and the United States and the introduction of customs taxes between the two countries have led to a slowdown in manufacturing production. If the trade war continues, it may lead to a global reduction in economic production in the near future. In addition, the Australian dollar itself is in trouble, from bleak economic fundamentals to central bank interest rate cuts, depending on this week`s unemployment figures. From the technical point of view, the Australian dollar bulls were blocked by 50 per cent withdrawal level 0.7019, and the downward support level was 0.6955, and the upper resistance level was 0.7019.
EURUSD
Yesterday, the euro fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market and the European market, rising in the United States, with a record high of 1.1336. Last week, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep the three key interest rates unchanged at 0.00 percent, in line with market expectations. The ECB said it had appropriately extended its expectations of keeping current interest rates unchanged and was not prepared to cut rates because of weak economic data, and markets saw the statement as slightly hawkish, surpassing investor expectations and boosting the euro. In terms of economic data, the weakness of economic in Europe cannot be ignored, after the core CPI data fell to 0.8 percent, and the euro zone consumer confidence index for the month of June, released yesterday, was-3.3, well below the previous value of 5.3 and the forecast value of 2.9, marking a lack of confidence in the euro zone`s economic, and a more severe economic recession is brewing. In a speech on Tuesday, the ECB`s governing committee and the president of the Finnish central bank reiterated the ECB`s readiness to use all available tools to deal with persistent weakness in the euro zone`s economic and stubbornly low inflation, including forward-looking guidelines, bank reserve requirements and quantitative easing. At present, in the absence of more information, the trend of the euro depends on the strength of the dollar. On Tuesday, U.S. President Trump wrote in Twitter accusing Europe of devaluing the euro, saying a weaker euro and other currencies would put the dollar at a disadvantage. From a technical point of view, the euro rose for several days in a row at 50 per cent withdrawal of 1.1336 blocked, the lower support level of 1.1106 levels.
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