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Diplomatic conflict between the US and China have intensified recently. On 21 government 7, the United States asked China to close the Consulate General in Houston accusation use it as an intelligence center. The Chinese side then reversed course and announced the closure of the US Consulate General in Chengdu.
U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo delivered a tough speech on China during the meeting, calling on free nations around the world to respond to the Chinese Communist Party on the principle of "distrust and distrust and verify" and decisively change. China
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Since the Coronavirus pandemic, the United States and China have basically no official level of negotiations and contacts, but because of virus traceability and continuous war of words. In the near future, the resort to action to close the Consulate General each other is considered a strong signal of diplomatic deterioration. As the two countries fall into a crisis of trust, experts worry that the United States and China may go to war.
America Secretary of State Pompey's speech was chosen at the Nixon Presidential Library and is considered to represent a shift in American policy towards China.
China and the United States relationship a sharp turn
Over the past less than two weeks, U.S. National Security Adviser O'Brien (Robert O'Brien), FBI Director Ray (Christopher Wray) and Judicial minister Barr (William Barr) have delivered speeches to express their tough attitude towards China on a range of issues.
Penpeo's speech is almost a qualitative and summary of the three dignitaries. "The Communist Party of China is regime Marxism-Leninism regime ", Pengpeo said ." If the free world does not change communism China, communism China will change us. "
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virus the pandemic, Beijing and Washington in military 、 economic and trade, technology and other areas of confrontation posture. Hong Kong's National Security Act came into force on June 30, Sino-US confrontation intensified. government U.S. has announced sanctions against Chinese Communist Party officials who undermine Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy, Sanctions were imposed on banks that had business with those officials. The State Department also announced on July 9, Sanctions were imposed on a number of Chinese officials and government entities involved in Xinjiang human rights violations. Meanwhile, journalist 、 students and other groups are also affected under the diplomatic conflict of the two countries.
Notably, in the military area, the United States Secretary of State Pompeo announced on 14 July that China's claim to sovereignty in most parts of the South China Sea was "totally illegal ". For the first time, the United States has publicly expressed its opposition to China in relation to sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea, which is seen as touching on China's "core interests ".
Many observers believe that the United States and China entered a "new cold war" period.
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He believes that this confrontation is the cumulative result of a series of events. These include the release of the national security strategy report in washington in late 2017 and the national defense strategy report in early 2018, which sees china as "the number one threat and strategic competitor "; and the release of the strategy report to china in may this year, which said it would contain china in political, economic 、military and other areas.
Xia Ming said that these programmatic documents and the speeches of recent dignitaries "collectively marked the entry of China and the United States into all-round confrontation, a'new cold war'..."
The cold war refers to the all-round confrontation between the capitalist camp headed by the United States and the socialist camp headed by the Soviet Union in the fields of diplomacy and military 、economic after the second World War. Some analysts compare the confrontation between the United States and China with the cold war period, saying that the two have similarities and differences, so they call it the "New Cold War ". Beijing, however, has been calling for "abandoning the cold war mentality ".
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A U. S. flag was raised outside the U. S. State Department's request for China to close the Houston Consulate on July 24, protest.
From the cold war to the hot war?
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"World War I started with a small thing and quickly spread to a number of great powers, though they didn't plan to go to war ," he said. "
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"Mr. Fu should be very worried about the current situation and issued such a warning, hoping that both sides of the United States and China should calm down and not stimulate each other, thus triggering a war ," Zhu said. "He agrees with the recent increase in U.S.-China military activity in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. "
sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea have continued for decades and tensions have escalated in recent years. The territorial claim of the "nine-section line" by Beijing and the reclamation of land, the construction of military facilities and the establishment of administrative districts in the disputed areas of the territory have triggered protest. and in the area of Tainan, the United States and China have frequently military activities in recent months, and the situation is tense.
According to Xia, armed conflict are sometimes not willing to each other, either because of strategic miscalculation or because of fear into a "security dilemma ".
He explained that "the recent contradictions and conflict between China and the United States are not based on reason, pragmatism or good will to solve the problem, but on the opportunity to humiliate each other and escalate the crisis. "The aim, in his view, is for both sides to salvage the crisis of legitimacy that their respective regime face in the face of virus pandemics and economic weakness.
Wu Qiang believes that the root cause of China's contradictions with other countries in the East China Sea, Taiwan Sea and South China Sea is that China embraces the mentality of traditional imperialism and does not recognize existing international rules. "And that's the crux of relationship tension between China and the United States ," he said.
Liberation Army of China
Where will the hot spot of the war be?
Wu Qiang believes that the South China Sea area does not rule out the occurrence of small-scale armed conflict, but the crisis will not expand. He said China's main strategic interest in the South China Sea is to provide cover for nuclear submarines in and out of Hainan Island. rather than verbally claimed sovereignty claims. "China still has a collective sense of developing the South China Sea with other countries. "
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Wu Qiang, on the other hand, believes that only after taking the TW can we solve the problem that Hainan Island needs a large number of sea and air to cover nuclear submarines, thus launching the US-China confrontation in the western Pacific Ocean.
"Only by seizing TW, as a nuclear submarine base can Beijing really be able to confront the United States in the future. So the more nervous the relationship between China and the United States, the more eager China is to seize TW ."
Xia Ming believes that the possible occurrence of armed conflict of hot spots depends on which side first provoked.
He said that if the United States first provoked, may choose the South China Sea. Because america's superiority in the navy and air force makes conflict the easiest to control and touch china's pain and morally the least civilian casualties.
If China provokes first, it is most likely to choose the Taiwan Strait, followed by the Sino-Indian border, Xia Ming said. TW, he argues, is the most reasonable for China's "one China" policy, with years of accumulated military equipment and infiltration. On the Sino-Indian border, the Chinese army can play an advantage, and for Beijing, on the one hand, it helps to strengthen the international security strategy, especially the control of Tiibet, on the other hand, it coincides with the "Belt and Road" economic strategy.
"The prospect of a hot war is increasing, and it will not be just a war between China and the United States. It must be a world war. This is very dangerous. "said Xia.
In recent years, China has carried out a large-scale reclamation and expansion project in the South China Sea islands, building an airstrip on the expanded islands (Yongshu Reef)
Is there any possibility of cooperation between the two countries?
Fu Gaoyi told The British Broadcasting Corporation Chinese that the possible armed conflict between the two countries is not the focus he wants to emphasize. "I want to convey the clear message that there is still hope for cooperation between China and the United States and that we do not need to be enemies ," he said. "
He believes that the two countries can start working together on public health, including Coronavirus, and climate change issues, and expand to more complex issues, including domestic subsidies to foreign companies, and the operation of ships and aircraft in the South China Sea.
Fu stressed the hope that officials from China and the United States could "discuss" these issues reasonably.
Zhu Zhiqun believes that in the latest round of US-China confrontation, China is a passive response, forced by domestic public opinion pressure ," have to make appropriate counterattack ". He believes that the Chinese side "may not be tit-for-tat, in some ways may back down. "
"One is that China has always stressed that China and the United States relationship are the most important bilateral relationship, and that from top to bottom it does value China and the United States relationship. and China does not have the capital to face the United States completely. China will wait patiently for the outcome of the November presidential election before taking appropriate measures to deal more comprehensively with the relationship ." between China and the United States
Many analysts believe that from now on until January next year, the two countries may have more friction, interaction is unpredictable.
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