Australia will face a different economic situation in the coming years as the number of immigrants plummeting as a result of border closures due to the new crown pneumonia outbreak.
'It will have an impact on the pace of Australia's economic recovery from the recession ,'said Chris Richardson, a prominent economic at the Deloitte Institute.
Deloitte forecast in its third-quarter business outlook that australia's population will be about 600,000 fewer in the next two years than forecast before the outbreak, even as australia gradually opens its borders during 2021.
"Australia is an unusual country ," Richardson told AAP. "
"For most countries around the world, it does not matter if migrants are not available. "
But for Australia, immigration will affect many industries, such as house and commercial buildings, and higher education.
"Even if immigration flows back to their past levels, Australia's future economic looks completely different ," he said. "
"The loss of migrants will affect many years. This puts pressure on the speed of recovery. "
That's another reason to think interest rates will remain "on the floor" at least until mid-2024, Richardson said.
He says there are many reasons why interest rates in many countries around the world are long-term low, not just in Australia.
A severe economic recession usually means that unemployment is rising faster than it is falling, while inflation is low for a long time.
The deloitte report predicts that unemployment will rise to 8.6% next year, worse than the 8% peak expected by the australian treasury by the end of the year.
Richardson also believes that because of the political impact of global debt and deficits, countries will government withdraw early measures to stimulate economic.
"Interest rates are stronger than ever, so when they rise, they flatten the economic, he said. "
With regard to the federal budget, Richardson points out that even with tax cuts for households and businesses, Australia still faces a huge cash crunch from now until the end of March 2021.
The federal government's job-insurance JobKeeper and unemployment-seeking benefits introduced during the crisis are being cut, the retirement fund from early payment is drying up, and a series of measures to allow delays in mortgage payments and rent payments will be withdrawn.
