Not surprisingly, Australia will be home to a population of 25 million after 11: 00 this evening. Before and after this important cut-off point, the debate on population policy has never been more intense, and when it comes to population, immigration has to be involved again.
Diversion is the challenge of population growth
Senator Dean Smith of the Western Australian Union should have been the most vocal speaker of population policy during the period, and he recently drafted a draft to discuss the issue, hoping that the Senate would open a formal research investigation.
In his latest article, he mentioned Australia as a huge economic beneficiary of immigrants, but it is time to pause and reflect. The pause was due to a much faster rate of population growth than had been estimated, after Australia thought it would not reach 25 million by 2030, 12 years earlier.
We all know that previous reports released by the Treasury and the Home Office indicate that immigrants, especially skilled migrants, have a positive impact on GDP, per capita GDP and living standards in Australia. But we did not take note of the report, warning that no matter what the "obvious positive impact" of population growth and immigration is, there will be challenges at the same time.
One of the obvious challenges now is how to pull migrants away from Sydney and Melbourne, not to mention remote areas, to other states, and to other capital cities.
The figures below are ABS's latest demographics, with the exception of Sydney and Melbourne, where all the capital cities are freezing, and Brisbane, who ranks third, is just fine.
Dean Smith said it was more worrying that Melbourne and Sydney were already ranked 29th and 40th according to the 2018 Demographia global ranking of cities. Paris, by contrast, is 26, London 61 and Berlin 86.
Infrastructure has been spurring, but the new state's goverment spends about A $11.8 billion a year on infrastructure and is expected to grow to A $17.5 billion a year as the population grows. Melbourne also needs to increase from A $10.5 billion to A $16.3 billion, Brisbane from 5.5 billion to 9.4 billion, and Perth from 4.4 billion to 9.4 billion to cope with the future growth needs of these cities.
So the Dean Smith argues that the demographic debate is not just about the number of migrants, but about long-term plans that put quality of life and productivity at the top of decision-making, building consensus on immigration policies at the cut-off point of 25 million people. Early action must be taken to avoid divisive and misleading demographic and immigration issues.
First, divert independent skilled immigrants
If you want to transport migrants to other capital cities or remote areas, goverment and business first think of skilled immigrants. We know there were 112000 skilled immigrants last year, but what we may not know is that 87% of them live in Sydney and Melbourne, and only 13%, or less than 15000, in other vast areas.
So the Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs, Alan Tudge, told the Chamber of Commerce Forum in Melbourne today that population growth is a matter of scale and distribution. If the population were more evenly distributed, and if infrastructure were completed before demand, Sydney and Melbourne today would be under pressure.
The goverment, a coalition party, has set up the Flag, as early as this year. It will announce a new immigration and settlement policy by the end of this year, diverting some of the newly skilled migrants to settle in places other than Sydney, Melbourne, and remote areas are also good for other cities. Just don't squeeze in those two big cities anyway.
The Australian recently learned that independent skilled immigrants are the most likely to be the first to be diverted from skilled migrants. The quota for independent skilled immigrants last fiscal year and this fiscal year was 43990.
With fewer skilled migrants and tighter employer guarantees, business executives are worried that immigration has always been targeted, Alan Tudge has promised the business world that goverment is not shutting down access to skilled migrants, but improving the immigration system. Because today's population growth is not only a simple numerical problem, but also a problem of distribution.
In his speech today, he stressed that whether it is to increase or decrease, it is important that the management of population growth can benefit Australians, and that skilled migration is not the more the better, but the need to strike a balance. Moreover, stricter border controls are actually better support for skilled migrants.
The goverment has noted that some aspects of the current skilled migration program have failed, such as the rise in unemployment from 12% to 22% in the first six months after the arrival of skilled migrants.
First off to South Australia?
After South Australia's governor, Steven Marshall, called on the federal goverment to give South Australia priority in immigration, The Australian learned that Alan Tudge was also discussing with Steven Marshall how to channel some of the skilled immigrants to Adelaide.
Sydney and Melbourne do not want immigrants, South Australia and Tata are very eager to get a piece of it! South Australia, which now faces a severe aging population and exodus, will soon be in trouble without sustained population growth and proper infrastructure.
For South Australia, skilled immigrants have almost everything they want, educated, skilled, ready to work, and they and their families can provide important help to the labour market and the economy. There are also some immigrants to start their own businesses, providing local job opportunities. More importantly, immigrants consume locally to stimulate the economy. So Andrea Michaels, head of South Australia's local law company, said it was wise for the governor to ask for South Australia to be made a priority region for immigration.
Oh, by the way, don't forget that there are also foreign students. The study abroad industry contributes more than $32 billion a year to Australia, but most of the enrollment is concentrated in New York, Victoria and Queensland, where South Australia needs to gain more market share, and the federal goverment can consider giving special student visa programs in South Australia to support.
First, enable regional immigration protocols
South Australia is currently the most active, but there are other places, Alan Tudge said: "the governor of South Australia told me that they want to absorb an additional 15000 migrants a year. Some mayors in remote areas told us we needed hundreds of people to get to the area. The recent headline in the Warrnambool local media in western Victoria is that we need 1000 workers. "
As employer guarantees tightened, more companies resolved the talent shortage by signing labor agreements ('Labour agreement') with the goverment, but there were more restrictions on industry and companies (see article 2 today).
The Alan Tudge confirms that the 'Labour agreement' will be expanded into a region-specific immigration agreement (' designated area migration agreements'), previously benefiting a company and then benefiting different industries and occupations across the region. At the same time, there are more immigrants / overseas workers who can be absorbed.
epilogue
There is no denying that what Alan Tudge said is true, and that the main direction of goverment's immigration policy reform is to bring migrants, especially skilled migrants, especially independent skilled migrants, to remote areas.
Why independent skilled immigrants? YY, if favorable policies can divert international students to other major cities, it will be easier to get PR, locally after graduation, which will not only boost the local economy, but also increase the population of other regions. At the same time reduce the pressure in Sydney Melbourne.
First, we hope that goverment is not a thunderstorm. Regional immigration agreements are about to be implemented, but they are not very attractive to international students or graduates. Canberra is a case in point if you can write a bit about the relatively underprivileged state guarantee policy, and I believe 189 applicants can be diverted in two major cities.
Second, between January 2000 and August 9, 2016, Australia welcomed 1.4 million of the 2.2 million new immigrants (PR), who applied directly from abroad, accounting for the fact that too many overseas immigration applicants were not ideal as mentioned earlier by 2/3.Alan Tudge. And the state of goverment and remote areas place the most emphasis on the local commitment, so there may be more demand for residency later.
Third, our international students also need to change their minds and think more about other areas other than Sydney Melbourne. In particular, desperate to add points, or not to catch up with the increase in the speed of 189 applicants. Adelaide and Hobart, for example, are remote areas, but they are also capital cities, with everything they need and many famous schools. If you want to emigrate, you can focus on remote areas or state guarantees at the beginning of your choice of destination.
