Bondi Beach (Bondi Beach), once crowded, has been closed since last weekend. (Daily Mail Photo)
According to new modelling data, Australia`s success in combating the epidemic depends largely on whether —— Australians follow official advice and try to stay at home.
According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the data come from a complex model that illustrates how COVID-19 spread in Australia. It found that:
- Unless eight out of 10 Australians stay at home as much as possible, the virus will continue to spread indiscriminately.
- If seven out of 10 Australians were to stay at home as much as possible, the effort to smooth the curve would be wasted.
- Modeling data also show that closing schools has little effect on controlling the epidemic.
Where does the data come from?
Earlier, researchers at the University of Sydney developed a model to simulate the entire Australian population using information about each person`s place of residence, the number of adults and children in each household, the movement of people in cities or towns, and other information about schools and airport locations.
They then added COVID-19 data to the model to see how the epidemic spread and experimented with different initiatives that might change growth momentum. But that doesn`t necessarily show what actually happens in the real world.
This model was co-founded by the University of Sydney Complex Systems Center (Centre for Complex Systems) and the Mary Bashir Institute of Infectious Diseases and Biosafety (Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity).
In the absence of a peer review process, relevant modelling data have been posted online. However, the model was developed earlier to map the spread of influenza in Australia, and the same team published peer-reviewed essay. based on the results
Why is staying at home so important?
(Source: University of Sydney)
People don`t have innate immunity to diseases such as COVID-19 toxicity infectious diseases, and there is no new crown vaccine. the only way to stop them from spreading, according to abc`s analysis.
According to this model, if 80 per cent of people in Australia follow the "body distance" recommendation, or control the spread of COVID-19 within 13 weeks.
However, Prokopenco (Mikhail Prokopenko), author of the study from the University of Sydney, said the results would be very different if the numbers were slightly reduced. "(The proportion of those who follow the recommendation falls to 70 per cent or less), which does not work. this does not reduce morbidity and prevalence. "
Moreover, this is the case regardless of how long these 70 per cent are self-isolated. Instead, the model shows that the number of new cases will continue to soar exponentially to thousands.
But if 80% follow the advice, the model suggests that the new crown virus is still likely to be controlled within 13 weeks. The daily number of new cases will also fall back to about 100.
If 90% of people follow the advice, they can eliminate the new crown virus almost from the australian population, possibly just 10 cases across australia.
"We can do it. If we do this, we can still control our lives and those of others. "
How to keep "body distance "?
authorities currently recommends that Australians:
- stay at home unless it is absolutely necessary to go out, such as working or buying food;
- Don`t have parties or barbeques, only very small family gatherings;
- Keep 1.5 meters away from others
In terms of the University of Sydney model ," physical distance "is defined as people staying at home without contact with colleagues; and in addition to their own families, contact with the rest of the world will be reduced by 90 per cent.
Australia last night imposed stricter restrictions, limiting the number of funerals to 10, wedding to 5.
Limited role of school closure
The model also found that while closing schools would delay the peak of the epidemic by about two weeks, it had no effect on the number of infections.
Prokopenco said the data model did not explore the reasons for this, but he speculated that this may be because the children entered the community after the school closed.
But if you don`t close school, there`s a price. At the peak, the number of new cases in children infected with the new crown virus increased by 8%.
Prokopenco also said :" If schools are closed and 70 per cent of people remain socially distant ,[ the Australian epidemic] will at least move toward lower morbidity and prevalence. "
