Experts expect real estate prices to fall sharply as melbourne and new states re-emerge. But the risk of a six-week blockade on home prices in Melbourne is even greater.
By far, the resilience of real estate markets has generally been demonstrated. In the three months ending June 30, home prices in Melbourne fell 2.3 percent and Sydney fell 0.8 percent. But CoreLogic figures show house prices have risen more than 10% over the past year.
Despite this, average price changes may mask large differences across real estate markets. For example, one-third of Melbourne's CBD apartments sold in the first three months of the year (even before the pandemic) traded at less than the buying price. Nearly 70% of them are investment houses. There has been a high vacancy rate CBD, Melbourne CBD, especially Southbank, and Sydney apartments.
The AMP Capital's chief economics, Oliver (Shane Oliver), said high unemployment, a moratorium on immigration and a "pay-free period" of rent would be big for house prices next year threat. he expects prices across Australia to fall 5-10%, with Sydney and Melbourne falling at the top of the range.
"If there is a new crown case that leads to a blockade across Australia, the decline could be much greater ," Oliver said. Melbourne, in particular, has pushed more businesses and families to the brink of a new blockade. "The national bank (NAB) economist, led by Oster (Alan Oster), expects a recession triggered by the new crown to cause house prices to fall 10-15% from peak to trough.
NAB economics forecast that Sydney house prices will fall by nearly 10% from the beginning of this year to the end of 2021. for melbourne, they expect to fall about 14% over the same period. Rolex (Tim Lawless), head of research for the CoreLogic Asia Pacific region, said the "stay at home" fix could mean that the market has again been severely disrupted after sales have improved since the resurrection festival. There are a number of factors that help protect house resale prices from further damage, he said, including reduced housing availability and government major incentives. In addition, record low interest rates and a suspension of payments by lenders helped prevent forced house sales.
Australia's demand for new home loans plunged 11.6% in May, according to data released last week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). "This is the biggest drop in history ," said ABS Chief economics Holkman (Bruce Hockman)." This was the result of a sharp drop in housing loan applications in New and Virginia. "
New loan applications for home ownership fell 10.2%, while investor mortgage applications fell 15.6%. Homeowner first home loan applications fell 9.3%.
Figures for may reflect the new cap in april, as house loans may take some time to get approved. Presley (Simon Pressley), managing director and head of market research at the Propertyology of the buyer's agency, said the May figures were in line with expectations because they were the most severe period of the blockade.
"Since then, with the exception of Melbourne, Australia has been greatly open ," Priceley said. Melbourne and Sydney, he said, are the most at risk because they are most affected by the freezing of international tourism, international students and overseas migrants.
Still, price declines in the two cities may not be double-digit.
