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Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

2019-nCoV Special
Source: xkb.com.au
[Current News]     20 May 2020
When the new crown virus (COVID-19) broke out in australia in early march, australians suddenly became nervous, and people rushed to supermarkets for panic purchases and hoarding of daily necessities caused some serious shortages. After state and federal government imposed a blockade and urged people to stay at home, rice, pasta and some canned food sold out in a few weeks, and an explosion of hoa...
Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

When the new crown virus (COVID-19) broke out in australia in early march, australians suddenly became nervous, and people rushed to supermarkets for panic purchases and hoarding of daily necessities caused some serious shortages.

After state and federal government imposed a blockade and urged people to stay at home, rice, pasta and some canned food sold out in a few weeks, and an explosion of hoarding made supply chains even more strained.

State and federal government minister have repeatedly said that buying large quantities of food and groceries is unnecessary, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison (Scott Morrison) has called sex buying "absurd" and "unwise ".

The National Farmers ' Federation is also trying to quell concerns about food shortages by telling consumers not to "panic ", because Australia" has an adequate food supply.

The minister of Agriculture, Drought and Emergency Management, David Littleproud (David Littleproud), even claimed that Australia "has the safest food security in the world ".

"We are a country with a population of 25 million ," Little Proud said in ABC program on May 11. "We produce enough food for 75 million people. "

Is that true? The Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology conducted an in-depth investigation of the problem, let`s take a look.

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

(David Littleproud minister Agriculture, Drought and Emergency Management (David Littleproud))


Little Proud makes sense.

According to many studies and experts, Australia has a high level of food security. Australia is rich in food, exports far exceed its demand, and has plenty of alternative sources when certain foods become scarce.

While Australia is not ranked first or & quot; most & quot; food-secure countries in the world, according to some comparisons, Australia still has a lot of flexibility in terms of food sources and can adjust production priorities to alleviate food shortages. Australia ranks 12th out of 113 countries in terms of food security, according to an international ranking.

Richard Heath (Richard Heath) of the Australian Agricultural Research Institute (Australian Farm Institute) represents the views of the experts.

"The basic definition is ,`will we be at risk of starvation because we can not feed ourselves? "—— we`re far from this reality, it`s ridiculous ," he said.

"When you consider the availability of irrigated waters, the amount of arable land... We are a very safe country for food. "


What does a country & quot; food security & quot; mean?

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

(At the beginning of March this year, the outbreak of New Crown in Australia, supermarkets across Australia appeared panic sex rush, people empty shelves. )


Food security is a complex concept that contains two basic concepts: quantity and quality.

The first is whether a country has sufficient sources of food, whether locally produced or imported, to sustain the lives of its people.

The second is whether people have reliable access to safe, nutritious and affordable food.

For example, a country may have a rich supply of certain types of food, but the sources of food are not diversified enough to provide a sustained nutritious diet.

Similarly, it may have an actual food supply, but its people can not afford it. Alternatively, it may be overly dependent on imported products to meet its own needs, or vulnerable to severe fluctuations in commodity prices.

Often, a portion of the population in all countries has limited access to safe, affordable and nutritious food. These groups include homeless people, low-income families, isolated communities or families with difficulties in meeting the challenges of daily life.

Having a high & quot; food security & quot; rating (determined by various theoretical models) means that a country can, in most cases, provide an affordable source of food for the vast majority of its people, giving them access to a nutritious and healthy diet.


Next page what & quot; food sovereignty "?.

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

a broader concept that takes into account the question of who controls the main sources of food and their associated distribution systems: ownership structures, economic authority foundations, and policies supporting national food supply chains.

Food sovereignty contains cultural preferences about what kind of food to produce, how to farm, and food in the production process.

Mr. Heath, executive director of the Australian Farm Institute, a policy research group focused on the agricultural sector, says some organizations and individuals often abuse the term & quot; security & quot;, while what they really argue is & quot; food sovereignty "..

The latter is described as & quot; what you eat is produced by the state & quot;, and says in Australia, mention & quot; food security & quot; is sometimes political.


Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

The Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology has studied the concept of & quot; food security & quot;, with a broad interpretation of & quot; food security & quot;, to assess & quot; food security based on a global definition of universal nutrition and affordable food supply & quot;, also taking into account the vulnerability of food shortages or supply chain disruptions.

One of government long-term obligations is to ensure the protection and security of and security of its citizen, a concept that includes sufficient food to sustain the daily needs of the people.

If a country can not feed its people, there is a risk of political instability.

On the contrary, political instability and regional hostilities can lead to food shortages, which can result if daily production is interrupted or crops are destroyed.

In some cases, local food shortages may result from drought, floods or epidemics, which inhibit production and disrupt the normal supply of one or more vegetables, fruits, grains or meat to the consumer market.

market forces or government interventions can help ensure the provision of alternative foods or alternative sources of supply.

In a globalized trading world, many elements of Australian food production and packaging depend on imported goods such as machinery, certain types of fertilizers, and certain types of packaging.

This disruption of supply chains could undermine the ability of local producers to ultimately meet demand. But experts say this will not have a catastrophic impact on food sustainability in Australia.


Food security in the historical dimension

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

Global concerns about food security intensified in the early 1970s, following the ravages of drought, storms and floods in developing countries and densely populated Bangladesh in East Africa.

At the same time, large-scale food production in India, Chile, Peru and some other countries has been hampered by political instability and the trend towards agricultural collectivization.

Rapid population growth, inflation, black market profiteering and poor management of government holdings led to extreme food shortages.

The crisis led to the holding of a global summit in Rome in 1974, at which representatives of the World Food Conference set a very ambitious goal of eradicating hunger everywhere.

The World Food Summit in 1996 confirmed the failure of this goal, but identified new goals and action plans focusing on the concept of & quot; malnutrition & quot;.

As part of these deliberations, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the Common Country (FAO) defines food security as:

& quot;[] All people at all times have access to adequate, safe and nutritious food, both physically and economic, to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a positive and healthy life.

FAO identified four aspects of food security.

Accessibility - actual provision of food through food production, stock levels and trade.

Accessibility - people have access to food both economic and material (centred on prices, market forces and income levels).

Available - Good bio-utilization of food through food preparation and feeding methods, dietary diversity and distribution within the household.

Stability - the long-term stability of the above three factors.


What is the level of food security in Australia?

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

The Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology studied three key data reference sources to determine food security in Australia.

1. economics Think Tank Group Data

The Human economics Information compiles extensive national research and statistics on a wide range of economic and policy areas.

In addition to the nutrition, availability and affordability of food security, its global food security index takes into account a country`s natural resources and resilience.

The index also takes into account structural changes that may affect a country`s ability to feed its people.

Australia ranked 12th out of 113 countries with a total score of 81.4(100) in December 2019, when economics published the Global Food Security Index.

Australia was ranked lower among Singapore (87.4), Ireland (84) and the United States (83.7), as well as seven other European countries and Canada.

Although Singapore is & quot; food security & quot; No .1 country, most of its food is imported and has little arable land.

The Singapore Food Bureau acknowledges that the country`s food supply chain & quot; remains vulnerable to external shocks & quot;.

In other words, if Singapore had to close its borders and ban all civilian and cargo movements, Singapore would soon run out of food.

This highlights the confusion between & quot; food security & quot; and & quot; food sovereignty ", which is measured by the food available to a country, while the latter includes the concept of controlling the food chain.

economics ranked Australia 7th in food affordability and 10th in food supply.

In terms of food quality and safety, Australia ranked 20th, behind most Western European countries.


Food and Agriculture Organization of the 2. Community

According to the latest report of the Common Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Australia, like countries in North America and Europe, is at the top of food security.

According to FAO, food security -- or insecurity -- refers to the proportion of a country`s population without access to safe, nutritious and affordable food.

The organization assessed Australia as one of the world`s most food- severe or moderate to severe food insecurity and is one of the world`ssecure countries in the world.

However, FAO has found that an increasing number of Australians are striving for reliable, safe, nutritious and affordable food.

In fact, the number of Australians with food insecurity has risen from about 600,000 in 2014-16(on a three-year average) to about 900,000 in 2016-2018, while up to 13 per cent of the population have moderate food insecurity.

A comment by Deakin University researchers in early 2019 also found significant differences in the way food insecurity is measured (or determined) in Australia -- a result they believe suggests that the prevalence and severity of food insecurity in Australia is underestimated.

The results of another study by Marx Rossell (Max Roser) of Oxford University and Hannah Rich (Hannah Ritchie) of the University of Edinburgh on data on global food security rates suggest that malnutrition rates in Australia may be closer to 3.5 per cent of the population, with as many as 3 million Australians experiencing a moderate to severe "meal crisis" at some stage.


3. Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource economic and Science (ABARES)

ABARES is the science and research sector of the Australian Department of Agriculture, Research and Environment.

It provides detailed analysis and production projections for various industries, including agriculture, fisheries, forestry, climate and drought biosafety and food demand.

A food security analysis of food security in Australia in the context of the new coronavirus epidemic on 17 April.

The report argues that concerns about food security in Australia are & quot; understandable, but there are misconceptions & quot;.

Australian Institute of Agriculture and economic found that Australia produces much more food than it consumes.

Australia exports about 70 per cent of agricultural production (in terms of production), including 71 per cent of wheat crops ,75 per cent of beef and veal production and 40 per cent of dairy products.

in turn, about 11% of food and beverages consumed in australia come from overseas in terms of value (not quantity).

The Australian Food and Beverage Association says COVID-19 restrictions & quot; are unlikely, but it is possible & will temporarily disrupt the supply chain of imported foods.

This may cause & quot; inconvenience to some consumers & quot;, but ABARES says it will not endanger the country`s overall food security.

However, ABARES researchers point out that shortages or disruptions in the supply chain of products used by Australian agricultural producers (e.g. fertilizers, seed varieties, machinery, etc.) may affect the production and profits of local food producers.

The Australian Association of Agricultural Research, in a more detailed subsequent report, said that although disruption in the international market & quot; may affect the selection and cost of some products, it will not have a substantial impact on the overall food supply & quot;.

& quot; some industries may be disrupted, Australian food production relative to domestic demand means there is no shortage of domestic food supply ,& quot; researchers conclude.

& quot; Despite the unexpected surge in demand and temporary shortages of some food in supermarkets, there is no food security problem in Australia. quot;&


Will there be a shortage of rice in Australia?

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

In recent weeks, the production and supply of rice in Australia has attracted particular attention, as restrictions on rice trade in some rice producing countries may lead to a decline and restriction in world production.

The severe drought in South-East Asia particularly affected Thailand and Viet Nam, two of the top three rice exporters.

However, India, the world`s largest exporter, has enjoyed favourable conditions for rice cultivation, increasing the area under cultivation. Production is expected to exceed 117 million tons in 2019-20, and more than 117 million tons in next year, although restrictions on the movement of workers caused by the new crown epidemic may suppress production.

Labor shortages in some countries due to the embargo on the new crown epidemic have led the U.S. Department of Agriculture to reduce global rice production forecasts for 2019-20 to 496.1 million tons, about 0.5 percent below last year`s record high.

In addition, trade restrictions imposed by some South-East Asian countries that export large amounts of rice may discourage international trading of rice.

The USDA forecast for April 2020 forecasts for April 2020 volume in 2020 may be about 5% lower than last year.

Vietnam, for example, temporarily banned most rice exports in March as part of concerns about food security for its population during the outbreak.

Vietnam began easing export restrictions related to the epidemic on April 28 and plans to resume full rice exports this month.

Moreover, the USDA noted in its April 9 announcement that the global supply of rice (and wheat)& quot; record levels and large enough to meet global demand & quot;..

Australia`s position in the world rice market is relatively low, accounting for about 2% of international rice trading volume by volume.

The Australian Rice Growers Association says about 80% of local crops are exported in years without drought.

In the last 13 years up to 2017-18, including several drought-affected years, local rice growers produced an average of 575,000 tons and exported about half. According to ABARES data on the rice industry, Australian consumers` annual demand (average) is 297,000 tons, a mix of imported varieties and locally produced rice. Local demand has been growing steadily for more than a decade.

Drought in the main rice-growing areas of eastern Australia for several years has severely affected domestic production due to water shortages and high prices for traded water.

Production in 2019 is expected to be 54,000 tons, less than 10 per cent of the long-term average.

The Australian Rice Growers Association (Ricegrowers'Association of Australia), which lobbied on behalf of domestic producers, criticized ABARES food security reports for the rice industry & quot; misleading & quot;..

The association said the safety of Australian rice supplies remained problematic due to the combined effects of drought and export restrictions in some countries.

The association believes that unless & quot; provides more water at a cheaper price between now and the rice growing window period of October 2020 quot;, there is likely to be another & quot; rare & quot; situation for Australian rice crops.

local rice producers and irrigation crop growers have called on state government and federal government to provide more water from the murray-daling basin.

ABARES researchers, however, say that locally grown rice is only a & quot; contribution to Australia`s food security concept.

ABARES rejected calls for water diversion to rice and other irrigation crops in a report dated 23 April.

& quot; call for the transfer of water or other inputs into the production of crops such as rice will only bring additional costs to other agricultural producers or the environment, and will not help increase supply in the short term, because the growing season of rice is over & quot;ABARES researchers say.


What do the other experts think?

Will the new crown plunge Australia into a 'food crisis '?

Bill Bellotti (Bill Bellotti), director of the Food Systems Program at the University of Queensland`s Institute for Global Change, said recent panic purchases in supermarkets were a consumer demand issue. This is not a matter of food production, nor of Australia`s food production capacity.

& quot; for most people, food security depends on the familiar food supply chain -- producing, processing, distributing and consuming food ,& quot; Professor Belotti said.

He believes that during the new crown crisis, the real bottleneck lies in the retail chain.

& quot; big retailers have food in their distribution centers, but can not quickly replenish to meet panic demand ,& he said.

& quot; the epidemic is forcing people to rethink the resilience and timing of these globally linked food supply chains.

& quot; inspiration is that this impact on the food system provides an opportunity for all food actors [people in the supply chain] to reflect on the impact of the new coronavirus on its role. quot;&

Professor Belotti said that everyone, including consumers, had the opportunity to reflect.

& quot; For example, consumers may consider buying local fresh produce rather than imported or highly processed foods. consumers may reduce food waste.

& quot; I think consumer behavior changes over time when dealing with the new coronavirus. quot;&

Richard Heath of the Australian Farm Institute says Australia has no problem with food security.

& quot;, by the most basic definition – that is ,' Are we at risk of starvation because we can not feed ourselves? & quot;-- we are far from the problem, ridiculous ,& quot; he said.

& quot; When you consider the availability of irrigated water, the amount of arable land...... we are a very secure country in terms of food.

& quot; But in Australia, the language of food security has been politicized. This means that because of a specific set of policy settings and market mechanisms, we do not have certain industries [flourish ]-- think about rice and dairy products.

& quot; it`s not because we do n` t have the productive capacity to do the industry. Our food production capacity is very high, but we use available water, such as almonds for production and export rather than milk or rice for consumption.

& quot; our food is secure, but the policy and market environment means that we sometimes have some insecurity [in some products]. [Although] we can easily replace it with something else.

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