News
 Travel
 Hotels
 Tickets
 Living
 Immigration
 Forum

The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

Source: bbc.com
[International News]     11 Oct 2020
[96433B35-CCD2-AD4A-901F-3680035E2D88]
The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

Ruins

Another outbreak of outbreak of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan in West Asia, and major Powers, including China, expressed concern and called for a ceasefire.

[40C4D35E-7C36-5D67-DEA9-DA9B253A1C43]

The temporary ceasefire agreement was hard won. Armenia and Azerbaijan are former Soviet Union republics. After the outbreak of the Naka armed conflict, Russia, Turkey, the United States, China, France, Iran and other international and regional powers, as well as international organizations such as the European Union and the common for a truce and resumed negotiations as soon as possible.

The scale of the battle exceeded the level of escalation in recent years. Hundreds of people, including civilians and combatants, who have used heavy artillery, tanks, missiles, fighter jets and drones, have been killed in the conflict and thousands have been displaced.

A temporary ceasefire agreement is fragile, and the dispute behind the conflict has never disappeared.

Why are the two small nations range by Waigaoçao conflict so serious and of interest to the great powers of the world?

The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

An ethnic Armenian soldier fires an artillery piece in Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: 29 September 2020

National contradictions

Armenia and Azerbaijan are located in the throat of Asia, Europe and the Middle East, which is of great strategic significance in the Caucasus range region of southeast Europe. For centuries, the region has been dominated by diverse forces, including Christians and Muslim.

Both were former Soviet Union republics. The main population of Armenia is Christian, while the main population of Azerbaijan is Muslim. two countries fought for the Nagorno-Karabakh region as early as the Soviet Union period (hereinafter referred to as Nagorno-Karabakh).

The Naka area is located in the south-western part of Azerbaijan, but the population is mostly Armenian. Naka had an independent kingdom in ancient times, but it was always influenced by the Persian Empire, the Ottoman Empire and other neighboring powers. Stalin's allocation of the Armenian-dominated Naka to Azerbaijan during Soviet Union laid conflict roots.

The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, 1993

With tensions between Soviet Union republics rising in the 1980s, naka (then an autonomous prefecture) voted to become part of armenia, triggering a conflict, between armenia and azerbaijan and escalating into a war after the disintegration of the Soviet Union until the cease-fire in 1994.

For the time being, the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by separatist Armenians supported by the government of Armenia. For decades, the two countries negotiated many times under the mediation of international powers, but never concluded peace treaty.


Great Power Game

As can be seen from the map, there are three land roads for energy transport and goods between Europe and Asia: Iran, Russia or Azerbaijan (involving the disputed Naka area). The ancient Silk Road needed to pass through West Asia. A bimonthly u.s. foreign policy publication entitled "why the west needs azerbaijan" says that the total disruption of relationship between the west, moscow and tehran left a viable route to hundreds of billions of dollars of trade: through a tiny caspian country, azerbaijan.

Central to the heart of the Eurasian mainland, the Caspian Sea region is densely packed with major oil and gas pipelines linked to European and international energy markets, very close to the Naka region. In addition, through the region's roads, railways, air routes and ground traffic cables, the world's major countries pay attention to the strategic pattern of the region. Once a third of the fuel and logistics of u.s. and nato forces during the war in afghanistan took georgia and azerbaijan's route, avoiding dependence on russia and pakistan.

The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

A Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet. File photo

The 1992 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the predecessor of OSCE) established a 12-nation Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, the United States and France, to mediate in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. despite the 1994 agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia on a comprehensive ceasefire brokered by the major Powers, armed conflict between the two sides occurred.

Geopolitics and historical feuds complicate conflict. The neighboring NATO member states Turkey and the oil-rich Azerbaijan are mainly Muslim countries and have the same cultural origin, and the two countries relationship closely. Turkey and Armenia have historical grievances, no official relationship, so Turkey has been supporting Azerbaijan in the Naka conflict.

Russia is allied with armenia, with military base ,5,000 troops in armenia, ready to prevent an accident in the region, although it also has a good relationship. with Azerbaijan

On the conflict of 2020, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that its Russian-Soviet 25 fighter aircraft had been shot down in Armenian airspace by Turkish-American F16 fighter jets. But Turkey denies that.

The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

Shelling has caused damage to homes in the city of Martuni

French President Macron has also stepped in with a high profile, publicly criticizing Turkey for making "bellicose" statements that "encourage Azerbaijan to re-conquer Naka ", calling them irresponsible and dangerous acts.

The other regional power, Iran and Asia, are historically inextricably linked. Iran and turkey are clearly divided over the naka issue, with iran pointed to armenia for arms shipments, but iran seeking to intervene in the mediation also denied accusations.

Strategic analysts point out that russia, most influential country in the region, Russia will not sit idly by as its backyard in the Naka area of conflict out of control, especially the Naka issue relationship to the security problem in southern Russia, which may stimulate ethnic and religious contradictions in southern Russia and affect its strategic interests.


Challenges for Belt and Road

As an important node of the ancient Silk Road in West Asia, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are countries that respond positively to China's Belt and Road initiative and compete for China's investment.

Beijing is attracted by the passage, which avoids the Middle East and Russia's two other land roads connecting Europe and Asia, and directly connects the western Xinjiang of China. But Beijing's move here and its growing influence have also left Russia and other big powers quietly watching.

The war in Transcaucasia is fragile, and the game of power behind the smoke never stops

The 2020 new crown epidemic did not stop the Central European Banlie from east China to Azerbaijan

China and Azerbaijan and Armenia have developed extensive cooperation along the way. China's international train 2015 year has been tested in Baku, Azerbaijan. Before the 2020 epidemic, Beijing, Shenzhen and Urumqi all opened air routes in Baku. Both countries' politics and economic relationship have been developing smoothly. Azerbaijan promotes the docking of its own development strategy with the construction of Belt and Road in order to open up the Caspian Sea international transport channels that can directly connect Asia and Europe from China up and down.

Armenia, as a landlocked country, also hopes to change its relatively unfavourable economic environment through Euro-Asian land transport, actively promote the "North-South Transport Corridor" project and turn the geographical disadvantage into an advantage. Belt and Road has rapidly increased bilateral trade between Asia and China from only hundreds of thousands of dollars at the beginning of diplomatic relations to $750 million in 2019. China has become Armenia's second largest trading partner for many years, the second strategic ally of Armenia, Russia.

[FC450EF2-AE2D-48FF-D18F-6EAF070B368E]

Analysts believe that for Azerbaijan and Armenia, their expectations of China will not be limited to economic and investment.

Beijing, for its part, will not easily offend anyone on the naka issue. Referring to the conflict of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs speaker Wang Wenbin said :" China believes that maintaining regional peace stability is in the interests of all parties, including Armenia and Azerbaijan. We hope that all parties concerned will maintain calm and restraint, take measures to avoid further escalation of the situation and resolve contradictions and differences through political dialogue. "

Post a comment

0
0
使用微信“扫一扫”
打开网页后点击右上角“分享按钮”
0
 您已成功为本文点赞!
感谢您的参与
Elevator
Recommend