Empty Opera Bar.(Getty Picture)
A sydney doctor said it was too late to contain a surge in critically ill new crown patients in australia and warned that the number of confirmed cases could break ten thousand next week. Another expert also sounded the alarm: Australia had only 48 hours to decide how to fight the disease in the future.
Speaking to SBS, Dan Suan, a researcher at the Gavin Institute (Garvan Institute) and a specialist in clinical immunity, said he was deeply concerned that Australia`s new crown cases now doubled about every three days. According to current trends ,10,000 cases may be reached by the end of March.
"Our current situation is that we will not be able to stop the surge in critically ill patients, but the question is how high the surge is and whether we can respond. "he said.
Block society from home
After hundreds of infections in australia, dr suan began sharing online messages on the increase in cases on social media, some of which were forwarded more than 10,000 times.
He said the rise in cases across Australia was less rapid than in Europe, giving Australia more time to respond. The problem is, however, that the curve is not flat. It rises at the same rate every day. "
Mr suan said the australians should start social segregation immediately, which means people should stay at home except in necessary and urgent situations. "The virus is human. So, I`m going to say now, if you want to avoid a disaster in Australia, the community needs its own blockade. If you are alone or at home with your family, you will not be part of the communication process. "
He also suggested that all meetings of more than two persons should be cancelled unless absolutely necessary. This is consistent with German practice.
However, he added that if Australians were aware of the outbreak, they could still shop at grocery stores or carry out other necessary outings.
Keep social distance "not enough"
Brent Beach (Bronte Beach) closed. (SBS picture)
The health sector is urging Australians to maintain a social distance of 1.5 others. But suan says this is not enough.
He said the Australian decision in the coming days "will actually determine the survival of tens to hundreds of thousands of Australian compatriots ".
He cited a essay. article in the journal Science that found that four-fifths of new coronavirus patients in China could not identify the source of the infection. "This tells you that just living, working, meeting, going to a bar, that`s why the virus spreads. "
Despite the increased response of Prime Minister Morrison (Scott Morrison), orders were issued last Sunday to close bars, clubs, gyms, cinemas, etc. restaurants and cafes offer take-out only. However, he did not explicitly target the closure measures for the wider community.
What is the way to fight the epidemic
Morrison now seems to have taken a "gentle curve" of the anti-epidemic road. (CNN Photo)
Blackley (Tony Blakely), a professor of epidemiology at the University of Melbourne, told Australian News that it was either too early or too late to close bars, cinemas and other shops together. It depends on what Australia aims to achieve.
"It depends on the outcome ," Blackley said ." We haven`t learned yet. We have 48 hours to really figure out what society`s goals are. "
Federal and state government appear to be divided on anti-epidemic measures, sending conflicting messages about the functioning of schools and the closure of public places.
Mr. blackley said mr. morrison appeared to have taken a "smooth curve" proposal since tuesday, while states moved in a different direction, telling parents to keep their children at home. "If your goal is simply to smooth the curve, it would be a great idea not to close the school. But the governors seem to be doing more to eradicate the virus. You can`t have both. "
"If we are to eradicate the virus, we need to step up our efforts. If we`re going to "flatten the curve ," we need to calm down. "
And that means that australia now faces two options —— eradicate the new crown virus altogether, or just flatten the growth curve.
The road to "eradication" would include a comprehensive blockade of the Australians, with the aim of achieving a quick decision within two to six weeks. Once the virus has disappeared throughout Australia, the Australian economic will be able to operate separately from the rest of the world within 12 to 16 months of vaccine development.
Wuhan, china, seems to have succeeded in adopting such a model, which mr blackley calls an extraordinary achievement, but australia has difficulty implementing such tough measures. If this approach is taken seriously, Australia must consider training personnel for contact tracing and isolating returning passengers in hotels.
He also noted that if it was decided to do so, Australia would not act quickly enough ," we can still achieve our goals, but our current measures are far from sufficient ". "This may be a better option for New Zealand, which is one or two weeks later than Australia. "
The "flat curve" option that most other countries are trying. government phase out businesses and stop other communities rally, to help the health system cope with the increase in infections.
He said it would be premature for all levels of government to shut down businesses if the curve was Australia`s goal, because our health-care services remain competent and the restrictions could be two months longer than needed. "Our health services are not close to the limit, so it is too early to act. We moved two weeks earlier. "
(cf. Australia News Network, SBS)
